BIMCO has issued its Tanker Shipping Market Overview & Outlook for February 2025, finding that a weakening of the product tanker market is expected.
Supply/Demand
In the base scenario, a slight strengthening of crude tanker market conditions is forecasted for 2025, followed by a weakening in 2026 due to increased supply growth. As ships gradually return to normal routings throughout 2025, a weakening of the product tanker market is expected as average sailing distances shorten. Rates and prices are predicted to align with changes in the supply/demand balance. Newbuilding prices may have peaked. US policy on Russia, ship sanctions, and import tariffs remain a source of uncertainty in the market outlook. The alternative scenario assumes that sanctioned ships in the parallel fleet will exit the active fleet in the first half of 2025.
Demand
The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, with slower growth in key countries such as the US, China, and India. The IEA estimates that crude supply will increase by 1.4 mbpd in 2025, with the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts potentially further increasing supply. Oil demand is expected to rise by 1.1 mbpd in 2025, driven mainly by growth in Asia, while OECD demand remains stagnant. A gradual return to normal Red Sea routing is assumed throughout 2025, which will shorten sailing distances and significantly reduce product tanker demand.
Supply
Crude tanker supply is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. Sanctioned ships from the parallel fleet may exit the active fleet, reducing supply growth. Product tanker supply is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2025 and 8.4% in 2026, driven by deliveries from the large order book. No changes to average sailing speed or congestion are assumed.
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Source: BIMCO
