- 12% of sailings were cancelled between mid-September and mid-October.
- Golden Week drives 65% of cancellations in weeks 40–41.
- 88% of weekly departures are expected to proceed as scheduled.
It looks like there’s been a significant spike in blank sailings for weeks 38 to 42, jumping a whopping 60% in just one week, from 49 to 78 cancellations. We can also expect more disruptions on routes linked to China, reports Drewry.
Cancellations Focused Around Golden Week
From week 38 (September 15–21) to week 42 (October 13–19), about 12% of the scheduled sailings, 85 out of 720, are set to be cancelled. A large chunk of these cancellations will hit the Transpacific eastbound route, with the Asia–North Europe & Med routes following at 34%, and the Transatlantic westbound at 16%. Interestingly, 65% of these cancellations are clustered around weeks 40 and 41, which align with China’s Golden Week. Still, it’s worth noting that 88% of weekly departures are expected to go ahead as planned.
Spot Rates Present Mixed Signals
As of September 10, Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) has dipped by 3% week-on-week, landing at $2,044. Rates for Asia–Europe/Med have dropped by 11%, while Transpacific rates have seen a slight increase of 4% due to General Rate Increases (GRIs). On the other hand, Transatlantic rates have decreased by 1%.
Fragile Support for Transpacific Increases
The demand leading up to Golden Week and the GRIs has given a temporary lift to Transpacific rates, but these gains are quite delicate. Without a stronger demand or major adjustments in capacity, we might see rates soften again.
Advice for Shippers
Shippers should keep an eye on tariff changes, opt for flexible contracts whenever possible, and strike a balance between taking advantage of spot market opportunities and securing bookings. This strategy will help them navigate the ongoing uncertainties in the market.
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Source: Drewry
