The first quarter of 2025 has set a historic low for newbuilding orders in the bulk carrier segment, measured in deadweight tonnage (dwt). With just 16 new contracts totaling 1.62 million dwt, this quarter represents the lowest Q1 level ever recorded and the second-lowest of any quarter in history, only exceeding Q3 2016.
Breakdown of Q1 2025 Bulk Carrier Orders:
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2 Newcastlemax
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6 Capesize
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5 Kamsarmax
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2 Ultramax
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3 Handysize
Comparing to Previous Years:
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Q1 2024: 173 orders (13.9 million dwt)
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Q1 2023: 9.8 million dwt
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Q1 2022: 10.7 million dwt
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Q1 2021: 13.4 million dwt
The stark decline in bulk carrier orders reflects the weak freight market, elevated newbuilding prices, and regulatory uncertainty discouraging fleet expansion.
Tanker Orders Also Declining
The tanker sector saw 43 vessels ordered in Q1 2025, significantly lower than previous years.
Breakdown of Q1 2025 Tanker Orders:
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9 shuttle tankers (commissioned by Tsakos Energy Navigation)
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2 LR2
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2 Aframax
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2 Panamax
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8 MR2
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20 Handysize chemical tankers
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Total: 2.84 million dwt (or 1.42 million dwt excluding shuttle tankers)
Comparing to Previous Years:
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Q1 2024: 186 tankers ordered (20.0 million dwt), including 28 VLCCs and 21 Suezmaxes (absent in Q1 2025)
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Q1 2023: 92 orders (6.4 million dwt)
While not a record low, Q1 2025 reflects a clear downtrend in tanker newbuilds, with VLCC and Suezmax orders dropping to zero.
Key Drivers Behind the Decline in New Orders
Several market and regulatory factors have contributed to the historically low newbuilding activity:
- Weak Freight Rates – Particularly in dry bulk, shipowners prioritize liquidity over fleet expansion.
- High Newbuilding Prices – Rising construction costs discourage orders.
- Regulatory Uncertainty – Future IMO decarbonization rules and propulsion technologies create hesitancy.
- Limited Shipyard Capacity – Many yards are fully booked until 2027 and beyond, delaying deliveries.
- Geopolitical Risks – Trade tensions and U.S. tariffs on Chinese-built vessels further complicate investment decisions.
Industry Outlook
With market uncertainty, high costs, and environmental regulations shaping investment strategies, shipowners remain cautious about new orders. Unless freight rates recover and clearer regulatory pathways emerge, bulk carrier and tanker newbuild activity may remain subdued throughout 2025.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
