BIMCO’s latest Shipping Number of the Week reveals a dramatic 92% year-on-year drop in bulker newbuilding contracts for the first two months of 2025, marking the lowest level in at least 30 years.
Key Market Factors Behind the Decline
- No new orders placed in February 2025, following an already weak January.
- Declining freight rates and high newbuilding prices discouraging investment.
- Shipyard capacity constraints, as container and tanker sectors compete for slots.
- Uncertainty in dry bulk trade, with weak iron ore and coal demand and potential shifts in Red Sea shipping routes.
Market Trends & Fleet Status
- Dry bulk second-hand prices dropped 12%, while newbuilding prices declined by only 1%.
- A five-year-old bulker is now valued at 86% of a newbuild’s price.
- Orderbook-to-fleet ratio sits at 10%, enough to replace aging vessels but not drive fleet expansion.
- Panamax segment holds the highest orderbook ratio (14%), despite an 83% drop in new contracts.
- Capesize orders fell to zero in 2025 after a stronger 2024, with an 8% orderbook ratio.
Renewal & Decarbonization as Key Drivers
- Fleet renewal and compliance with climate regulations will likely drive future contracting.
- Older vessels face competitiveness challenges due to stricter speed and emissions limits.
- Increased recycling of aging bulkers may be incentivized in the medium to long term.
As BIMCO’s Filipe Gouveia notes, contracting remains uncertain, with future growth likely dependent on regulatory shifts and environmental strategies rather than pure demand recovery.
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Source: BIMCO
