The struggles of the LNG carrier Buran in the Chukchi Sea highlight the significant operational and strategic risks Russia faces in attempting to maintain energy exports from its Arctic LNG 2 project outside the summer season, especially with its “shadow fleet.”
Buran’’s Operational Challenge
The Buran, an LNG carrier belonging to Russia’s “shadow fleet,” is currently struggling with early winter sea ice in the Northern Sea Route (NSR):
- Location and Activity: The vessel is currently probing the ice edge in the Chukchi Sea, repeatedly traveling north to south as it searches for a path through the thickening ice.
- Ice Class Limitation: The Buran has a medium Arc4 ice-class rating, which permits it to operate independently only in light ice. For more severe ice conditions, it requires an icebreaker escort.
- Current Predicament: It reached the NSR north of the Bering Strait on October 29 and has been battling ice for the past three days after departing the Koryak FSU in Kamchatka on October 26.
Strategic Risks for Russian Arctic Exports
The incident underscores the limitations Russia faces in sustaining its ambitious Arctic energy projects:
- Shadow Fleet Vulnerability: The Buran is part of a fleet operating outside Western insurance and tracking systems due to sanctions. Its struggle highlights the limits of the shadow fleet in the Arctic outside of the brief summer navigation season.
- Need for Icebreaker Escort: The Buran requires an icebreaker escort for severe ice. Its sister ship, the Vokshod, is currently approaching the same waters from the west, following behind the nuclear icebreaker Sibir. However, the convoy, traveling at 5 knots, is several days away from reaching the Buran.
- Unsustainable Winter Deliveries: Experts maintain that the steady level of Arctic LNG 2 (ALNG2) deliveries to China’s Beihai terminal, which were successful in recent months, will not be possible once the official NSR winter season begins in two weeks. Data provider Eikland Energy expects Novatek, the project operator, to be conservative and protective of its Arc4-rated fleet.
- Diversion of Vessels: Novatek has already begun routing its non-ice-class vessels away from the Arctic, choosing the Suez Canal route instead. The vessel Arctic Metagaz is currently taking this route (traveling northbound through the Red Sea), despite the route’s high-security concerns due to Houthi activity. Arctic Metagaz was previously stuck for over a week in the same Arctic waters earlier this summer.
High Ice-Class Capacity Shortage
Novatek’s ability to operate in heavy winter ice is constrained by its limited supply of high ice-class carriers:
- Current High-Class Fleet: Novatek currently has only one high ice-class Arc7 LNG carrier, the Christophe de Margerie, at its disposal.
- Delayed Deliveries: Several more Arc7 carriers, including the initial vessel Aleksey Kosygin, have faced delays at Russia’s Zvezda shipyard, and the timing for their launch remains uncertain.
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Source: gCaptain
