- The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that no new fossil fuel boilers should be sold from 2025 if the world is to achieve net-zero emissions by the middle of this century.
- It’s one of 400 steps on the road to net-zero proposed by the agency in a special report.
- The sale of new petrol and diesel cars around the world would end by 2035.
- The IEA says that from now, there is no place for new coal, oil or gas exploration or supplies.
A recent news article published in the BBC by Matt McGrath asks to ban new gas boilers from 2025 to reach net-zero.
Report welcomed
The report has been welcomed as an important contribution on the road to COP26 in Glasgow, when countries will attempt to agree the measures needed to put the Paris climate agreement into practice.
In that context, tackling the issue of how the world produces and consumes energy is the most critical endeavour.
To keep close to that mark, emissions of warming gases need to drop by half by 2030, and essentially hit zero in 2050.
The IEA’s new study sets out what it believes to be a realistic road map to achieve that aim, while at the same time creating millions of jobs and boosting economic growth.
2050 vision
By 2050 it envisions a global economy that is twice as big as today, with two billion extra people but with the demand for energy dropping by 8%.
Crucially, it sees no place for new supplies of coal, oil or gas.
Key steps to net-zero in 2050
- Fossil fuel use falls drastically in the net‐zero emissions scenario by 2050, and no new oil and natural gas fields are required beyond those that have already been approved for development. No new coal mines or mine extensions are required.
- Emissions from electricity generation fall to net‐zero in advanced economies by 2035 and globally by 2040. Renewables drive the transformation, up from 29% of generation in 2020 to nearly 90% in 2050.
- The number of public charging points for electric cars rises from around one million today to 40 million by 2030, requiring an annual investment of $90bn by the end of the decade.
- By 2035, nearly all cars sold globally are electric, and by 2050 nearly all heavy trucks sold are fuel cell or electric.
- Per capita income from oil and gas in countries that rely on fossil fuel production falls by around 75% from $1,800 to $450 by the 2030s.
Need for massive investments
However, the IEA’s route to net-zero will require massive investments and international co-operation on an unprecedented scale.
It will also have direct impacts on consumers all over the world.
Home heating with gas or oil is currently a major source of carbon emissions in many countries, responsible for around 20% of CO2 in the US and the UK.
The IEA path to net-zero says that in just four years’ time, there should be no new fossil fuel boilers sold, except where they are compatible with hydrogen.
This will not be an easy shift for the building sector.
“It will be very difficult, because it means a massive turn in the consumption behaviour,” said Maria Pastukhova, from the E3G environmental think tank.
“The building sector is maybe one of the toughest ones because aside from the emphasis that the IEA has put on efficient buildings, all the old existing infrastructure has to be retrofitted. And that’s a particular challenge for governments.”
The IEA says that as well as greening the energy system it will need to be expanded to provide electricity to the 785 million people in the world who have no access at present.
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Source: BBC
