- Canadian crude exports rose 59% to 618 kbpd, driven by the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion.
- Vancouver now handles 60% of shipments, boosting exports to Asia.
- A proposed US tariff may shift crude flows to Asia and Europe.
- Oil production is expected to hit 6.23 mbpd in 2025, with more seaborne exports.
Canadian crude tanker exports have grown significantly in 2024, reaching 618 kbpd year-to-date—an increase of 59% from the same period in 2023. The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which began operations on May 1, 2024, has played a crucial role in this surge by increasing capacity from 300 kbpd to 890 kbpd. This expansion has transformed Vancouver into a key crude export hub, with volumes rising to 373 kbpd and now comprising 60% of Canada’s total seaborne crude exports, according to BIMCO.
Impact on Crude Tanker Shipping
The increased crude output has benefitted Aframax and Panamax crude tankers, which have been handling Vancouver’s rising volumes. Aframax vessels, accounting for 75% of Vancouver’s shipments, are primarily used for exports to Asia, while Panamax tankers (25% of shipments) focus on shorter routes to the US.
Despite the growing importance of Asian markets, the US remains the dominant importer of Canadian crude, receiving 58% of seaborne shipments. East Asia has emerged as the second-largest destination, importing 21% of total Canadian crude shipments, with China being the primary buyer.
Trade Risks and Future Outlook
The US continues to rely on Canadian crude, importing 3.7 mbpd via pipelines and rail, representing nearly two-thirds of its crude imports. However, a proposed 10% tariff on Canadian oil could disrupt this trade and force Canadian exporters to seek alternative markets.
The IEA forecasts an increase in Canadian oil production to 6.23 mbpd in 2025, reinforcing the need for diversified export markets. The Trans Mountain pipeline still has 150-200 kbpd of available capacity, and a potential Phase 3 expansion could add an additional 300 kbpd. If US tariffs take effect, a shift in trade flows toward Asia and Europe is likely, increasing demand for crude tankers and further boosting seaborne exports.
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Source: BIMCO
