- Transpacific Eastbound Cancellations Set to Dominate in Coming Weeks.
- Shipping Reliability Expected to Improve Despite Market Uncertainty.
- Tariff Uncertainty Drives Cancellations and Declining Export Bookings from China.
Drewry’s Cancelled Sailings Tracker provides a snapshot of blank sailings declared by each Alliance against the number of scheduled sailings. From Weeks 18 (28 Apr–4 May) to 22 (26 May–1 Jun), 75 sailings were cancelled out of a total of 718 scheduled sailings on major East-West trade lanes, such as Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe & Med. This gave a 10% cancellation rate, reports Drewry.
Capacity Trends and Outlook
Drewry predicts that, in the next five weeks, the majority of East-West blank sailings will impact the Transpacific Eastbound, with 61% cancellations, followed by Asia-North Europe & Med (31%) and Transatlantic Westbound (8%). Sailing reliability will improve slightly, with about 90% of weekly sailings going ahead as scheduled. Carriers like Gemini are predicted to meet up to 99% schedule reliability. But these hopes may alter if carriers step up blank sailings due to overcapacity, especially on the China-US lanes.
Impact of Trade Uncertainty
Even though there was a temporary hiatus in US tariffs, Chinese export bookings have fallen, and this has led to a significant rise in blank sailings. Transpacific eastbound cancellations rose from 22 to 65 during Weeks 16 to 19. Carriers and shippers are taking a short-term, risk-averse stance, delaying long-term choices. Some are even considering alternative sourcing bases in Southeast Asia, although equipment shortages and capacity remain chronic issues.
Market Prices and Price Movements
Drewry’s WCI Composite Index reduced by 2% week-on-week, hitting $2,157 per 40ft container as of 24 April. Transpacific freight rates declined by 3%, while Asia-Europe/Med and transatlantic rates reduced by 1% each.
Strategic Recommendations for Shippers
Against the prevailing market conditions, Drewry recommends that shippers remain adaptable and responsive to changing trade conditions. The fortunes of the future will largely be determined by how tariff negotiations progress, which may either stabilise the volumes or prompt additional service drops.
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Source: Drewry
