- Cancelled sailings on major East–West routes are set to decline, with a sharper drop forecasted on the Transpacific in July.
- Despite reduced cancellations, spot rates are falling due to capacity outpacing demand, especially on Transpacific lanes.
- Asia–Europe and Med rates remain elevated, but further hikes may face resistance without mid-season capacity cuts.
- Carriers may adopt tighter capacity controls to stabilize rates if demand weakens through late Q3.
Global container shipping continues to grapple with fluctuating freight rates and persistent operational hurdles. In June, cancelled sailings on key East–West trade routes are projected to decrease by 1%, with a more significant 54% month-over-month drop anticipated in July, particularly affecting the Transpacific corridor. Of the 719 planned sailings across major trade lanes—Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia–North Europe & Mediterranean—49 are expected to be cancelled between early July and early August, representing a 7% cancellation rate. Most blank sailings are forecasted on the Transpacific eastbound route, followed by Asia–North Europe & Med and the Transatlantic westbound leg. Despite this, schedule reliability is on the rise, with 93% of weekly departures expected to proceed as scheduled, according to data from Drewry.
Market Cools Ahead of Tariff Decision Deadline
As the July 9 expiration date for the U.S. pause on reciprocal tariffs nears, uncertainty continues to shape global trade conditions. Potential tariff changes in the coming weeks could significantly impact trade flows moving into the third quarter.
In the ocean freight market, early signs suggest a softer-than-expected peak season, especially on Transpacific routes. Spot rates are declining as available capacity begins to outstrip demand. Drewry’s World Container Index dropped for the third week in a row, falling 6% week-over-week to $2,812. Transpacific rates saw a sharper 13% decline, while Asia–Europe and Mediterranean rates edged down 1%. In contrast, Transatlantic rates increased by 7%.
The earlier spike in demand—triggered by temporary tariff relief—led carriers to ramp up capacity, particularly on Asia–US West Coast services. That growth has now slowed, with spot rates slipping well below the highs seen in June.
Rates on Asia–Europe and Med routes remain high, up 42% since May. However, the recent stabilization in Mediterranean lanes indicates that further general rate increases (GRIs) may be difficult to sustain unless carriers make rare, in-season capacity cuts.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains cautious. Carriers are likely to tighten capacity in the coming weeks to protect rates if demand stays subdued into late Q3. Shippers should stay flexible, as tariff decisions, geopolitical shifts, and changing market conditions continue to influence global trade dynamics.
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Source: Drewry
