The shipping market started 2025 on a weak note, following a weak end to the previous year. However, there are indications of a possible market rebound starting around mid-February, according to Fearnley.
Capesize
The Capesize market started the year weakly, as expected after a weak end to 2024. However, there are signs that a rebound might begin around mid-February.
A record number of Very Large Ore Carriers (VLOCs) are currently sailing towards Brazil, a strong indicator of potential market strength. While these vessels are still en route, their presence suggests increased demand for Capesize ships shortly.
Furthermore, iron ore price trends indicate a firming market from late February through March, which could further support a rebound in Capesize rates.
Panamax
The Panamax market experienced a weak start to the year, following a subdued end to 2024. While initial firmness was seen in the Atlantic due to limited tonnage, it quickly faded as more vessels entered the region. In the Pacific, oversupply and limited cargo volumes, particularly from Indonesia, put pressure on rates.
However, there are signs of a potential market rebound around mid-February. A record number of Very Large Ore Carriers (VLOCs) are currently sailing towards Brazil, indicating strong demand in the coming weeks. Additionally, iron ore prices are expected to firm up from late February through March, which could further support a market recovery.
Supramax
The Handysize and Supramax markets experienced a quiet week with limited activity and downward pressure on rates. In the Atlantic, oversupply in key regions like the Continent-Mediterranean, South Atlantic, and US Gulf kept rates low. In Asia, the market was divided, with prompt vessels facing pressure while others awaited better opportunities. Despite some attempts to stabilize rates in the North Atlantic, further activity is needed to improve market sentiment.
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Source: Fearnley
