The shipping market for large cargo ships (Capesize) has seen a decline in rates for the Brazil to North China route. This is partly due to an increase in the number of empty ships returning to Brazil. Despite this, iron ore exports from Brazil to China have been strong. In the third quarter of 2024, iron ore shipments to China reached their highest level since 2021. In September 2024, iron ore exports from Brazil to China increased by 12% compared to the same month in 2023, according to AJOT.
Freight Rates
The dry bulk freight market showed mixed sentiment in the third week of October. A softening trend was confirmed on the Capesize Brazil–North China route, while early signs of an upward trend on the Panamax Continent–Far East route have now reversed, stabilizing near last week’s levels.
- Capesize vessel freight rates for shipments from Brazil to North China settled at $25 per ton, reflecting a 7% decline week-over-week.
- Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East remained steady at approximately $35 per ton, defying expectations of a downward trend in the first half of October. However, there was a slight monthly decline of 2%.
- Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route remain around $11 per ton, reflecting a 3% increase compared to the previous month.
- Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route have remained steady at $35 per ton since April, marking a 12% increase compared to the same period last year.
Ballasters
The third week of October appears to show a downward trend for the larger vessel size categories, while sharp increases have been recorded in the Supramax markets in Southeast Asia and the Handy sector in the North Pacific.
- Capesize SE Africa: The number of vessels has dropped to lower than 95, now 17 vessels below the annual average.
- Panamax SE Africa: Although the current number of vessels remains below the annual average of 130 since the end of week 36, there appears to be an upward trend for the coming days.
- Supramax SE Asia: The number of ballast ships surged to 120, marking a notable increase from the lows observed in the previous week. However, it remains uncertain whether this spike will be sustained through the end of the month.
- Handysize NOPAC: Following the year’s peak of 97 blasters recorded last week, the number now appears to be on a downward trend. However, it remains 5 above the annual average.
Tonne Days
In the third week of October, dry tonne days for the Capesize and Supramax segments continued to decline sharply, maintaining a downward trend. Meanwhile, the upward revisions seen in the Panamax segment during the previous weeks appeared to be solidifying into a confirmed trend for October.
- Capesize: The current trend confirms a downward revision for October, which is now showing a significantly weaker performance compared to the peak observed in week 38.
- Panamax: Weekly percentage growth has continued to rise but remains below the highs reached in week 26. However, recent levels show a stronger recovery compared to the low point in week 30.
- Supramax: The growth rate has continued on a downward trend, signalling weaker overall growth for October.
- Handysize: The Handysize vessel segment maintained a steady growth pace throughout the first half of October. However, it remains to be seen if this momentum will translate into a stronger weekly percentage increase in the coming days.
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Source: AJOT
