- Bauxite volumes are rising, and coal is gradually declining.
- Iron ore remains dominant at around 75%.
- Market changes are supporting Capesize earnings.
Drewry’s AIS data shows that Capesize cargo volumes in 2019 and 2025 remained broadly stable at over 1.8 billion tonnes, but the commodity composition has shifted. Iron ore continues to anchor the segment, while coal’s importance has declined, and bauxite has emerged as a growing cargo.
Decline in Coal, Rise in Bauxite
Coal’s share in Capesize trade has fallen from 21% in 2019 to around 16% in 2025, reflecting a slowdown in long-haul coal movements. At the same time, bauxite volumes have increased from 3% to about 8%, mainly driven by expanding shipments from West Africa to China.
Impact on Vessel Earnings
The rise in long-haul bauxite trade has increased competition for Capesize tonnage. As a result, average Capesize TC rates in 2025 are nearly 20% higher than in 2019, while Panamax rates have risen by only around 10% over the same period.
Guinea-China Trade Outlook
Guinea is becoming a busier loading hub, with both bauxite exports and future iron ore shipments competing for Capesize vessels. Once the Simandou project ramps up towards its planned 120 million tonnes, longer voyages and loading delays are expected to further tighten supply and support Capesize utilisation.
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Source: Drewry
