Global container freight rates on major Asia–United States routes are expected to finish 2025 significantly below levels seen at the beginning of the year, reflecting ongoing softness in demand and increased capacity on transpacific trade lanes, reports ICIS.
Spot rates for container shipments drop
According to recent freight data from leading market platforms, spot rates for container shipments from East Asia and China to the United States have moved lower in late December and are on course to record a year-over-year decline of nearly half compared with early January levels. Rates to the U.S. East Coast are projected to fall by approximately 48 per cent, while rates to the U.S. West Coast are set to decline by nearly 59 per cent. These figures point to a markedly weaker rate environment than seen earlier in 2025.
Industry analysts attribute the downward trend to a combination of subdued import demand in the fourth quarter and a growing fleet of container capacity deployed across the transpacific corridor. Carrier attempts to implement scheduled general rate increases (GRIs) have struggled to achieve broad market acceptance, despite capacity reductions and a series of blank sailings intended to support pricing.
Alternative freight advisors show a mixed picture
Market commentary highlights that although rates have experienced intermittent upticks above recent lows — including occasional short-term spikes — sustained upward momentum remains elusive. A key factor dampening demand is the cautious stance among some U.S. manufacturers, who have temporarily paused imports amid broader uncertainty around tariff policies. Speculation over potential legal shifts affecting tariff structures has also weighed on booking activity, with some shippers postponing cargo in anticipation of lower duties.
Indices from alternative freight advisors show a mixed picture: while the broader trend points to softer pricing, certain weekly rate measures from other sources remain modestly higher than the lowest levels seen earlier in the year. Container capacity insights indicate that carriers continue to adjust service patterns, including blank sailings, in efforts to rebalance supply and demand.
The anticipated decline in container rates has broader implications for global supply chains and industries reliant on transpacific freight. Lower shipping costs may provide short-term relief for importers, but they also signal underlying weakness in trade flows and demand for consumer goods. Economic variables such as inventory adjustments, shifts in sourcing strategies, and tariff-induced trade realignments continue to shape the freight market outlook as the industry enters 2026.
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Source: ICIS
