DNV’s latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 reveals that shipping’s energy transition is moving into a new stage, characterized by targeted investments, fleet readiness, and evolving regulatory frameworks, reports Safety4sea.
According to the report, the stage is set. The IMO has approved – but not yet adopted – the NZF and is heading towards implementation of the first ever global pricing mechanism for GHG emissions.
Even as projects for the production of low-GHG fuels are facing headwinds, the shipping industry is moving forward. LNG- and methanol-capable ships are crowding the order book, while ammonia as fuel, onboard carbon capture, and modern sails are all being tested and readied to impact on the global shipping industry.
Key findings
The report also outlines several solutions that could help bridge the gap between fleet readiness and fuel availability:
- Leveraging existing fuel infrastructure for low-GHG fuels, like biodiesel and bio-LNG, combined with the adoption of flexible chains of custody models can significantly ease access to these fuels, incentivizing and accelerating both production and uptake.
- Energy-efficiency measures on newbuilds are increasingly deployed, reducing emissions immediately without requiring new infrastructure or supply-chain development.
- Onboard carbon capture (OCC) is gaining traction, particularly for large vessels with available onboard space. Modelling from the report shows that equipping 20 major ports with CO2 offloading infrastructure could enable the removal of up to 75 million tonnes of captured CO2 annually, potentially offsetting the need for 25 Mtoe of low-GHG fuels, as much as is needed to reach the IMO’s 2030 base target.
- 2025 could be a breakthrough year for maritime wind energy. Wind-assisted propulsion systems (WAPS) are gaining broader commercial adoption, with claims of 5-20% reduction in fuel use for certain ships, according to vessel owners, operators and technology makers.
Preparing for upcoming requirements
Ships contracted in the coming years need to consider the upcoming stringent requirements to retain their commercial attractiveness, asset value, and profitability in the following decades. As we move beyond 2030, ships in operation may need to consider retrofit options for using low-GHG emission fuels. The NZF regulations not only affect technology choices and operation of ships but also impact the development of shoreside infrastructure and the availability of low-GHG fuels and carbon dioxide (CO2) storage.
Goals of the net-zero framework
The NZF aims to accelerate the adoption of low-GHG fuels and technologies, thereby supporting the achievement of the revised 2023 IMO GHG Strategy, namely a 20% reduction in emissions by 2030, a 40% reduction by 2040 (compared to 2008 levels), and net-zero emissions ‘by or around’ 2050. It is based on the GHG fuel intensity (GFI) metric expressed in gCO2eq/MJ of all energy used on board in a calendar year on a well-to-wake (WtW) basis. Gradually stricter GFI targets are to be set every year from 2028. In effect, the NZF penalizes vessels with a GFI higher than the targets and incentivizes the use of low-GHG fuels and other technologies that can reduce the GFI.
Did you subscribe to our Daily newsletter?
It’s Free! Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Safety4sea
