- China has shifted from enforcing its one-child policy with heavy fines to offering cash subsidies in an effort to boost its falling birth rate.
- The high cost of raising children, especially in major cities, far exceeds the government’s annual childcare allowance of 3,600 yuan ($500).
- Economic uncertainty, job insecurity, and intense social competition are driving many young adults to delay or avoid parenthood.
- Gender imbalances in caregiving and limited workplace support for families continue to discourage women from having children.
When Zane Li was nine years old, the arrival of a baby sister changed his life in unexpected ways. Growing up in a small city in eastern China, his parents were fined 100,000 yuan (about $13,900) under the country’s one-child policy—a penalty nearly three times their yearly income from selling fish at the local market. Overnight, Li took on household duties and spent school breaks helping at his mother’s stall. Now 25, he has decided not to have children, a choice increasingly common among his generation. This growing reluctance comes as China shifts from decades of limiting births to offering financial rewards to encourage them, according to CNN World.
Rising Costs Overshadow Government Subsidies
The government’s latest plan offers an annual childcare subsidy of 3,600 yuan ($500) for each child under the age of three, retroactive to January 1, and partial payments for those born before 2025. Backed by a budget of 90 billion yuan ($12.54 billion), the program is expected to benefit 20 million families this year. It follows years of local-level measures such as housing incentives, tax breaks, cash bonuses, and extended maternity leave.
However, the financial reality of raising a child far outweighs the assistance offered. A study by the YuWa Population Research Institute estimates that raising a child to the age of 18 costs an average of 538,000 yuan ($75,000) in China—over six times the country’s GDP per capita. In cities like Shanghai, that figure exceeds 1 million yuan, with Beijing close behind at 936,000 yuan. For many young adults already facing high housing prices and modest job prospects, the subsidy feels like a drop in the bucket rather than a meaningful solution.
A Shift From Penalties to Incentives
China’s population policies have undergone a dramatic transformation over the past decade. For more than 35 years, the one-child policy was strictly enforced through hefty fines, forced abortions, and sterilizations. Rural exceptions existed in certain provinces, but enforcement in cities was rigid. In 2016, the government raised the limit to two children per family, and in 2021, it was further expanded to three. Despite these policy changes, birth rates have continued to fall, with the population shrinking for three consecutive years—a trend that experts warn could accelerate without significant intervention.
The national childcare subsidy represents a centralized approach to a challenge previously addressed mostly at the local level. Demographers see it as an acknowledgment that the falling birth rate is a national concern rather than a regional issue. Yet similar pro-birth efforts in countries like Japan and South Korea have had limited impact, suggesting that financial incentives alone may not be enough to reverse deep social and economic trends.
Changing Social Attitudes
Economic strain is only one factor shaping family decisions. Many young Chinese express a broader skepticism about the future, pointing to the slowing economy, rising unemployment, and intense social competition. Property prices remain out of reach for many, while well-paying jobs are increasingly awarded through personal connections rather than qualifications. These pressures have led to a sense that hard work no longer guarantees upward mobility.
This disillusionment is captured in popular buzzwords such as “involution,” describing a cycle of excessive competition with little reward, and “lie flat,” a phrase used by those who choose to step back from societal expectations, including marriage and childrearing. Personal experiences reinforce these views—Gao, a 27-year-old from Guizhou, grew up hidden from family planning officials so her parents could have a son. Now living in Jiangsu, she has no interest in marriage or children, believing it would be unkind to bring a child into an environment she sees as unstable and lacking opportunity.
Gender Imbalance in Childrearing
Another barrier lies in the persistent gender imbalance in caregiving. In many families, women shoulder the majority of childcare responsibilities while maintaining full-time jobs. June Zhao, 29, who grew up in Beijing’s competitive Haidian district, recalls her mother balancing work with escorting her to tutoring classes and helping with homework—an experience that made her acutely aware of the unequal burden placed on women.
As birth rates fall, government messaging has increasingly emphasized women’s roles as “virtuous wives and good mothers,” promoting these ideals as essential to raising the next generation. But experts say such appeals are unrealistic for today’s highly educated, career-focused women. Demographer Emma Zang notes that without measures like paternity leave, flexible work arrangements, and workplace protections, fertility rates are unlikely to improve. “The government wants more babies, but society isn’t structured to support families,” she says. For many women, parenting still appears to be a long-term sacrifice with little institutional support—making subsidies alone an insufficient incentive.
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Source: CNN World
