- Commercial vessel traffic from China to the US fell 27% in April 2025 due to rising reciprocal tariffs.
- China significantly reduced LNG and LPG imports from the US, shifting to suppliers in the Middle East.
- A 90-day truce was agreed upon in Geneva to ease tariffs and stabilize trade tensions temporarily.
The escalating trade war between the US and China led to a noticeable 27% reduction in maritime traffic from China to US ports in April 2025. Only 87 vessels arrived during April 1–25, down from 119 in the same period last year. Most arrivals were container ships, with smaller numbers of dry cargo, ro-ro, live cargo, and mixed dry cargo vessels. The drop in vessel movement reflects deeper trade uncertainties stemming from aggressive mutual tariff hikes, according to Anadolu Ajansi.
Impact on Energy Shipments
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade volumes also declined sharply. In April 2024, 38 LPG and 6 LNG vessels returned empty to China after offloading cargo in the US. By April 2025, only one LPG ship made the return journey. This change underscores China’s shift away from US energy imports, opting for Middle Eastern sources due to tariff-related cost increases.
Export Decline and Market Response
Chinese exports to the US shrank by 21% in April 2025 compared to the previous year. Despite this significant drop, it was milder than anticipated, possibly because US buyers absorbed some of the tariff impact due to the difficulty in quickly finding alternative sources. This relative resilience in export levels strengthened China’s position in trade negotiations during high-level talks in Geneva.
Evolution of Tariff Measures
Tariffs between the two powers escalated quickly in 2025. US tariffs on China doubled from 10% to 20% by March, prompting a 15% retaliatory tariff from China. On April 2, the US imposed broad-ranging tariffs on all countries at rates from 10% to 50%, leading China to announce 34% retaliatory duties, later escalating to a cumulative 125%. The US’ total tariff burden on China reached 145%, although electronics were later exempt. A Geneva dialogue led to a 90-day truce, reducing US tariffs to 30% and China’s to 10% from Wednesday onward.
Outlook for Bilateral Trade
The total US-China trade volume reached $582.4 billion in 2024, with China enjoying a $295 billion surplus. However, this trade relationship is under threat unless a permanent solution is reached. If high tariffs persist, the WTO projects an 81% decline in trade volumes between the two countries. The situation is poised to reshape global supply chains and shipping routes, as China boosts trade with alternative partners.
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Source: Anadolu Ajansi
