Despite intense US pressure on key buyers, Russia’s seaborne crude exports have been maintained at a 16-month high, driven by Asian demand and the continued commitment of major importing nations.
Russian Export Volume and Value
The four-week average of seaborne crude shipments from Russia’s ports reached 3.62 million barrels a day up to September 28, matching the highest level recorded since May 2024. This sustained high volume comes despite pressure from US President Donald Trump on buyers like India, Turkey, Hungary, and Slovakia to halt purchases.
In the most recent volatile weekly figures, 36 tankers loaded 26.75 million barrels of Russian crude, an increase from the prior week. This volume surge pushed the gross value of exports to a three-week high of approximately $1.57 billion for the week ending September 28. On a four-week average basis, the value of exports remained steady at about $1.46 billion a week.
Buyer Defiance and Destination Trends
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers—including those with no declared final destination—rose to 3.23 million barrels a day in the four weeks to September 28, marking the highest flow since May 2024.
- China, the largest overseas buyer, explicitly stated its intent to deepen energy ties with Russia rather than reduce them, vowing to defend its interests against potential US tariffs.
- India is showing no sign of reducing imports, with officials indicating that a significant cut would require replacement flows from other sanctioned suppliers like Iran and Venezuela. Although the crude volume declaring an Indian port as the destination has fallen sharply, the volume on vessels listing no final destination beyond the Suez Canal has soared, suggesting that much of this crude is likely still headed for Indian refineries. An Indian refiner, sanctioned by the European Union the previous month, has been steadily increasing its reliance on Russian crude.
- In Europe, landlocked Hungary and Slovakia have rejected calls to end piped imports, citing the significant negative impact on their economic output and technological hurdles related to alternative routes.
- Turkey also remains a consistent importer, continuing to bring in approximately 300,000 barrels a day of Russian crude.
Market Prices and Other Factors
The price of Urals crude from both the Baltic and Black Sea ports saw an increase during the week, while the Pacific grade ESPO experienced a slight dip. Delivered prices for Urals in India rose to an eight-week high of $67.18 a barrel. Separately, the recent increase in overseas shipments may be partially attributed to the diversion of crude from damaged domestic processing plants to export terminals following continued drone strikes by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries. However, there are concerns that spare capacity at Russian crude export terminals may be limited, capping how much more crude can be diverted.
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Source: gCaptain
