- CCFI falls to 1,112 as spot rates hit record lows.
- SCFI drops 46%, the biggest Q1 fall since 2009.
- Europe and Med rates decline over 30%.
According to BIMCO, Average container freight rates for Chinese exports have fallen 28% since the start of the year, marking the worst first-quarter decline in twenty years, reports Marine Link.
CCFI Mirrors Steep Decline
The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), derived from 23 liner operators’ data, fell from 1,548 at the beginning of the year to 1,112 at the end of the first quarter. The steep decline was led by record-low spot freight rates. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell 46%, the biggest Q1 decline since its inception in 2009.
Historical Context and Market Trends
“Since 2006, the CCFI has on average only fallen 2% during the first quarter and has only declined more than 10% four times. The second worst year was 2023 when average rates fell 24% between the start and end of the first quarter,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
Although there was a robust beginning to the year with East and Southeast Asian export volumes increasing 20% compared to the previous year in January, rates nevertheless declined. The continued rerouting of ships around the Cape of Good Hope is taking up 10-12% of world fleet capacity but has failed to stop the decline.
Major Trade Routes Experience Dramatic Drops
Among major trade routes, export rates to Europe and the Mediterranean fell the most, by 33% and 32%, respectively. North-south trades fared even worse, with freight rates to South Africa down 40%, Australia/New Zealand down 38%, South America down 35%, and West Africa down 26%. The only trade route not hit by the slowdown was China-Japan.
Long-Term Perspective and Uncertainty Ahead
Although plummeting sharply, overall freight rates were down just 8% compared to a year ago at the end of Q1 and still stand 39% above those of 2019. Global trade is shrouded, however, with uncertainty due to changing US tariff policies.
“As the container ship fleet’s capacity is expected to grow 5.4% during 2025, freight rates can be expected to remain lower than in 2024. Should volume growth falter and ships return to normal routings in the Red Sea area, 2019 levels may soon be within sight,” says Rasmussen.
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Source: Marine Link
