Bloomberg reports that China’s LNG imports are set to fall for the 13th consecutive month in November, reflecting a continued shift toward domestic production and pipeline gas as the country maintains a stable supply through non-seaborne sources. Market estimates point to around 5.81 million tons of arrivals this month, a level roughly 5.5% lower year-on-year, according to figures compiled from Chinese customs data.
Through most of the year, China’s appetite for seaborne LNG cargoes has remained muted as buyers prioritize lower-cost piped gas from Russia and Central Asia. Domestic output has also remained robust, further reducing the need for additional spot purchases of the super-chilled fuel. Forecasts for normal to mild winter temperatures signal limited urgency to draw on the spot market, especially as long-term contracts continue to supply heating demand for the coming months.
As the world’s largest LNG importer last year, China’s softer pull on the market is attracting attention among global suppliers. Analysts note that even if lower prices encourage Chinese buyers to increase volumes, the pace of new export capacity scheduled for later in the decade may still keep global LNG supply running ahead of consumption.
Market activity across Asia continues to move steadily. Several regional buyers have issued DES tenders for early 2025 delivery windows, while sellers have offered both DES and FOB volumes for loading through the first quarter. At the same time, spot freight rates remain elevated, influenced by higher exports from North America and increased vessel utilization. In the Atlantic basin, charter rates have climbed to about $150,000 per day, the highest level since late 2023, according to assessments from Spark Commodities.
Key indicators show a mixed demand picture. China’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 209,000 tons on November 23, slightly below last year’s levels. European gas inventories stood around 79% full on November 22, lower than the five-year seasonal norm, while the region’s 30-day LNG import average remained significantly above historical trends. Estimated flows to U.S. export terminals reached roughly 17.8 bcf/day, maintaining a stable week-over-week trend.
Across the forward market, price benchmarks eased slightly. Japan-Korea Marker futures for January slipped to $11.250/MMBtu, while Dutch TTF December futures settled near $10.042. Freight dynamics also continued to support higher vessel earnings, with Pacific spot returns for a 174,000-cbm carrier assessed at $83,000 per day, reflecting steady gains from the previous session.
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Source: Gcaptain
