- China’s port cargo throughput grew 5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, up from 3% in Q1, driven by stronger EU and emerging market demand.
- Exports to the US fell sharply due to April tariff hikes, but gains in EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America shipments offset the drop.
- Shipping freight rates declined amid oversupply, with trade volatility expected to persist due to uncertain US tariff negotiations.
China’s port cargo throughput rose by 5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, an improvement from the 3% growth recorded in the first quarter, according to Fitch Ratings. Higher demand from the European Union and emerging markets supported increased volumes at both coastal and inland river ports.
Resilient Export Performance Despite US Decline
Export value growth remained stable, registering 6.0% year-on-year in Q2 compared with 5.7% in Q1. Robust shipments to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America helped offset a significant 23.9% drop in exports to the United States, following the imposition of higher tariffs in April.
Freight Rates Impacted by Oversupply
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index fell by 7% quarter-on-quarter, while the China Containerized Freight Index dropped by 14% over the same period. These declines were attributed to an oversupply of shipping capacity, which was exacerbated by ongoing trade frictions.
Ongoing Tariff Negotiations and Risks
Talks between China and the United States have yet to produce a long-term tariff resolution. While a temporary truce has been extended by 90 days beyond its mid-August expiry, uncertainty remains high. Fitch Ratings warns that further extensions could support short-term trade stability, but the risk of renewed tariffs means volatility is likely to continue in the coming quarters, posing downside risks to China-US trade volumes.
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Source: Fitch Ratings
