Chinese New Year, approaching on January 29th, will likely cause significant disruptions to global supply chains. These disruptions are expected to be amplified this year due to the simultaneous implementation of new carrier alliance networks, which will further complicate shipping schedules and potentially lead to delays, reports Sea Intelligence.
Capacity Surge
The analysis reveals a significant surge in container shipping capacity on the Asia-North America West Coast route during the Chinese New Year (CNY) period in 2025.
Capacity for the 4-week CNY period in 2025 has reached an unprecedented level of just under 1.34 million TEU, exceeding even the high-demand period of 2021. This represents a substantial year-over-year growth of 33.3% and a 34.1% increase compared to the average of 2016-2019.
This sharp increase in capacity, which is not currently justified by any significant surge in demand, raises concerns about potential market imbalances and potential downward pressure on freight rates.
Blank Sailings
Blank sailings for the upcoming Chinese New Year period are significantly lower than in previous years. At 9.0%, the current level of blanked capacity is the lowest observed during the analyzed period, a stark contrast to the 22.8% blanked in 2024 and the average 18.3% reduction between 2016 and 2019. Notably, even the 2021 period, characterized by surging pandemic-driven demand, witnessed higher blanking levels at 10.7%.
This unusually low level of blanking suggests that carriers may announce significant capacity cuts in the coming weeks, similar to the drastic reductions observed in 2023 and 2024. However, the recent formation of new alliances (MSC, Gemini Cooperation, and Premier Alliance) introduces an element of uncertainty. Carriers might prioritize phasing in their vessels into these new networks, potentially delaying or even mitigating the expected level of blanking.
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Source: Sea Intelligence
