- The clean tanker market saw contrasting trends in Q4 2024, with bearish UKC-USAC routes and volatile Med-Med rates driven by geopolitical and logistical disruptions.
- Emerging factors like US policy changes under President-elect Donald Trump and the potential reopening of the Suez Canal may reshape global freight dynamics.
- Longer-term trends, including technological advancements and sanctions on key oil-producing nations, are poised to influence tanker markets in 2025.
The global clean tanker market closed in 2024 amid starkly different rate dynamics across regions, underpinned by geopolitical tensions, fluctuating demand, and emerging policy shifts. While the UKC-USAC route struggled with oversupply, Med-Med trades witnessed sharp volatility. In ahead, developments like US energy policies and a potential reopening of the Suez Canal will likely redefine trade routes and freight rates in 2025, reports SP Global.
UKC-USAC Route Under Pressure
Freight rates on the UKC-USAC route faced bearish conditions in Q4 2024 due to weak demand and oversupply of tonnage.
Platts assessed rates dropped to w115.75 by Dec. 30, indicating a significant year-on-year decline.
Med-Med Route Volatility
The Med-Med clean tanker market experienced sharp price surges in late November, driven by prompt cargo activity and limited tonnage.
Bollinger Bands and RSI indicated heightened volatility, with freight prices stabilizing toward year-end as supply conditions improved.
Impact of the Red Sea Crisis
The lingering Red Sea Crisis disrupted East of Suez tonnage flows, exacerbating volatility in Mediterranean markets.
Reduced competition from East of Suez added bullish pressure to Med-Med rates.
Trump’s Potential Policy Shifts
Market participants anticipate President-elect Donald Trump’s policies may boost US gasoline imports, refined product exports, and domestic energy initiatives.
Tightened sanctions on countries like Iran or Venezuela could significantly impact global trade flows.
Suez Canal Reopening: A Game-Changer?
A reopened Suez Canal could shorten key trading routes, improving logistics but potentially reducing ton-mile utilization.
Faster repositioning between the Atlantic and Asia could flood markets with tonnage, pressuring freight rates.
2025 Outlook
Future tanker rates will depend on geopolitical stability, US energy policies, and logistical developments.
Longer-haul trades and compliant tonnage may gain prominence amid evolving global trade dynamics.
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Source: SP Global
