Linerlytica reports that freight rates have begun softening again after a mid-October rebound, as the latest trend signals that carriers are increasingly challenged by weak cargo demand and capacity management.
Key findings from the Week 45 market brief include:
Trans-Pacific import volumes dropped approximately 7.2% year-on-year in October, following a 10.0% year-on-year decline in September.
On a year-to-date basis through October, Trans-Pacific volumes remain positive by about 2.1%, largely due to front-loading earlier in the year; however, full-year growth is now expected to be marginal, around 0.4%, with flat growth projected for most of 2026.
The cargo share from China on Trans-Pacific trade has fallen by 6.5% year-to-date, while Southeast Asian origins (notably Vietnam) have grown by 23.0%.
In contrast, European freight rates are holding up better, aided by persistent port congestion that continues to constrain capacity and support utilizations.
Notably, CMA CGM is testing a westbound voyage through the Suez route on its “MEX” service after two eastbound runs on the “FAL1” service. This move could challenge the current carrier consensus to avoid the Red Sea route.
For maritime stakeholders—shipowners, charterers, port operators, and logistics professionals—this week’s data suggests that the logistics cycle is entering a phase where rate resilience is under pressure, particularly on the Pacific trade lanes. The shift in origin regions, coupled with volume contraction, may prompt deeper discussions on capacity alignment and carrier strategic routing.
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Source: Linerlytica
