In 2018, the US trades have been primarily dominated by the trade war with China which has increased the rates in a significant manner.
Key developments in the Far East – US West Coast trade
Those operating in the Far East – US West Coast (USWC) trade saw rates in Jan-18 30.5% lower than the same period of 2017. They then developed in an unspectacular fashion, declining as they usually do in the run-up to Chinese New Year and thereby remaining below the same period a year earlier. In fact, for the first quarter of 2018, rates were 25.4% lower than those recorded in 2017.
Positive signs
However, the FE – USWC trade showed some positive signals. In Apr-18 rates increased at a faster pace than the previous year, a trend that has continued, and therefore rates began to claw back some of the yearly losses. But it wasn’t until Jun-18 that rates surpassed the equivalent month of 2017. As a result, for the first six months of the year, they were 18.2% lower than in 2017.
Fig 1: Far East – US West Coast ($ FEU left axis) & Month-on-Month Change (right axis)
Note: Rates started 2018 at levels lower than the previous year but have seen more positive month-on-month developments, helping to take them to levels not recorded since early 2015.
While month-on-month rate developments were mostly better than those recorded during 2017, they only started to significantly improve once President Trump announced plans to impose trade tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports, starting in Jul-18.
In July 2018, rates subsequently jumped 19.3% compared to the previous month, taking them to $1,705 FEU and 16.0% higher than Jul-17.
The increases didn’t stop there, with rates jumping 27.8% in Aug-18 to $2,179 FEU. A further round of tariffs starting in September 2018, added yet more uncertainty to the trade and the result was an average spot rate of $2,409 FEU, which represents a level not recorded since early 2015 and a 40.7% premium to rates recorded in Jun-18.
Uncertainty on the cards
While rates have developed positively for carriers, the trade war masks like-for-like rate developments, making it harder to determine underlying market fundamentals. For example, will demand wither and rates tumble once shipments rushed forward to beat the tariffs begin to die down? Or will continued uncertainty lead to even more increases?
Regardless of the fundamentals, carriers will push home the opportunity to improve revenue streams.
Fig 2: Far East – US West Coast ($ FEU)
The long-term impact
Time will tell whether recent developments represent a short-term market reaction to the measures imposed by Trump. However, these increases have begun flowing through to contracted rates. Although increases for long-term contracts have been less severe, those entering long-term deals most recently still paid a substantial uplift compared to those negotiated just 3-4 months earlier.
The true long-term impact of the tariffs is hard to determine, but the market is prepared to pay an increase for contracted rates to remove the continued uncertainty and risk surrounding the spot market.
Need for cybersecurity
In other key developments, a malware attack on Cosco in July 2018, affected its US services and reduced it to communicate with customers via social media highlights the growing importance of cybersecurity within the sector.
While the effects on Cosco were far less damaging than those Maersk reported due to the infamous NotPetya attack in 2017, it serves as a stark reminder to industry players that might be struggling financially, that failing to invest in cybersecurity could lead to dire consequences.
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Source: Xeneta
