- Container freight indices recorded a modest year-end rally, led by a 6.7% rise in the SCFI.
- Fourth-quarter CCFI averages remain significantly below third-quarter levels, reflecting continued earnings pressure on carriers.
- Selected services have resumed transits via the Suez Canal, though a full return remains months away.
- Port congestion outside North America has surpassed 2022 peaks and is expected to stay elevated into 2026.
According to Linerlytica’s Market Pulse 2025 Week 52, container freight markets closed the year with a short-term improvement in rates, even as structural challenges around earnings and port congestion continue to weigh on the sector.
Container Freight Rates and Earnings Pressure
Container freight rates experienced a limited year-end rally, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rising by 6.7% in the final reading of 2025. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) also increased, though at a more moderate pace of 2.0%.
Despite this recent strength, the broader quarterly picture remains weak. Average fourth-quarter CCFI rates are still 10.7% lower than those recorded in the third quarter, and current-quarter rates are at their lowest level in two years. As a result, carriers’ earnings remain under pressure heading into 2026.
Gradual Return to the Suez Route
Some container services have begun returning to the Suez Canal as scheduled. From last week, eastbound voyages from Europe on the FAL 1, FAL 3 and MEX services have resumed Suez transits, alongside sailings in both directions on the India–US East Coast Indamex service.
While these developments mark an important step, a full-scale return to the Suez route is still expected to take several more months.
Port Congestion Outlook
Ports across Asia and Europe are already preparing for increased congestion linked to changing vessel deployment patterns. Outside North America, port congestion levels in 2025 have exceeded previous highs recorded in 2022 and are expected to remain elevated through 2026.
Congestion at container ports in Europe, China and Southeast Asia reached record levels during 2025, with the number of vessels waiting at anchorages remaining high as the year-end approached. High container throughput volumes, unstable vessel schedules that lead to bunching of arrivals, and labour-related disruptions, particularly in Europe, have all contributed to the situation.
Ports are now bracing for further pressure when more vessels return to the Suez route in 2026, potentially exacerbating congestion across key global gateways.
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Source – Linerlytica
