- Q1 2025 net income was US$9.9 billion, down 36.4% from the previous quarter but up 82% year-over-year.
- Earnings drop marks a trend reversal, following three quarters of rapid profit growth driven by Red Sea disruptions.
- Forecast for Q2 2025 suggests continued decline, with earnings expected between US$5 billion and US$6.6 billion.
The global container shipping industry reported a net income of US$9.9 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a decline of US$5.7 billion or 36.4 per cent compared to Q4 2024. However, this still represents an increase of US$4.5 billion or 82 per cent over the US$5.4 billion earned in Q1 2024, according to Baird Maritime.
Expert Observes Shift in Profit Trend
According to John D. McCown, container shipping expert and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Center for Maritime Strategy, Q1 2025 marked “the second straight sharp decline” in industry profits. This comes after three quarters of substantial earnings increases that began after Q4 2023.
Impact of Red Sea Disruptions and Outlook for Q2
Capacity constraints related to Red Sea disruptions had initially driven the Q1 2024 net income of US$5.4 billion. McCown noted that this amount was “doubled in Q2 2024 and then more than doubled again” in the following quarter.
Looking ahead, McCown predicts Q2 2025 earnings “will come in at from half to two-thirds” of Q1 2025’s profits, estimated between US$5 billion and US$6.6 billion. This would be significantly lower than the US$10.2 billion achieved in Q2 2024 during the peak of the earnings surge.
An Unpredictable Road Ahead
McCown emphasized that the remainder of 2025 will be among “the most eventful periods ever” for the container shipping industry, marked by “lots of twists and turns” as market forces continue to shift.
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Source: Baird Maritime
