- Spot rates collapse across Q3 to multiyear lows
- PCR1 drops nearly $2,000/FEU in three months to $1,300
- PCR3 falls $2,200/FEU to $1,600 as Med weakness accelerates
- Carriers announce GRIs and blank sailings, but skepticism persists
- Tender season approaches with shippers pressing for record-low levels
The third quarter of 2025 marked a dramatic reversal for the European container freight market, with spot rates sliding steadily to their lowest levels since late 2023, reports Platts.
Carriers attempted to offset falling load factors with blank sailings and general rate increases (GRIs), but persistent oversupply and weakening demand left sentiment firmly bearish heading into Q4.
July: GRIs falter as summer lull sets in
The quarter began with some early strength, as successful GRIs and capacity constraints lifted rates in the first half of July. PCR1 – North Asia to North Europe – reached $3,500/FEU in early July before easing to $3,100/FEU by month-end. PCR3 – North Asia to Mediterranean – fell more sharply, from $3,800/FEU at the start of the month to $3,000/FEU by July 31, reflecting weaker southern European demand.
Market participants cited muted peak-season volumes and operational bottlenecks as key drivers of the decline. Blank sailings and congestion at Rotterdam, Antwerp, and London Gateway added to volatility.
August: Relentless erosion to sub-$2,000 levels
August delivered sustained weakness across both trades. PCR1 dropped from $2,900/FEU at the start of the month to $2,000/FEU by Aug. 30, marking seven consecutive weeks of decline. PCR3 initially held steady at $2,500/FEU, but pressure built as redeployed tonnage weighed on volumes.
“Rates are chaotic – extra loaders have undercut the market, and carriers are being forced to chase cargo with ever-lower FAK levels,” one carrier said.
The fallout from the Aug. 13 fire on the Marie Maersk also heightened uncertainty. Forwarders reported little difficulty in securing space, with sub-$2,000/FEU levels seen increasingly likely into September.
September: Collapse to new lows, GRIs announced
September brought the sharpest falls of the year, pushing rates to fresh multiyear lows. PCR1 fell from $1,700/FEU in early September to $1,300/FEU by Sept. 26, with forwarders reporting deals as low as $1,100–$1,200/FEU on base port runs. PCR3 mirrored the trend, dropping from $2,100/FEU in early September to $1,600/FEU at month-end.
“We can’t afford to keep rate levels at $1,300 – even the big boys need $1,800/FEU to break even,” a carrier source said. Forwarders were unconvinced by attempts to lift rates, with one noting, “Carriers are dreaming as always. Where are the cargoes going to come from? Even Chinese New Year isn’t until February.”
Carriers announced GRIs targeting $2,000/FEU to North Europe for the second half of October, alongside deeper blank sailing programs. But sources said the measures were unlikely to stick until seasonal cargo flows returned in November.
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Source: Platts
