- Kazakhstan Output Boost Drives Larger Tanker Use.
- Asian Demand Reshapes CPC Shipping Strategy.
- Suezmax Utilisation Hits 4-Year High at CPC Terminal.
During the first quarter of 2025, crude exports from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk saw a significant change in tanker preference. Suezmax units, which were previously a secondary option to Aframax ships, were the favoured vessel for crude exports. This was the largest quarterly number of Suezmax loadings from CPC over the past four years, exceeding the volumes of 2022, 2023, and 2024, based on data from Signal Ocean, reports Break Wave Advisors.
Kazakhstan Terminal and Output Adjustments Fuel Change
The trend can be partly attributed to increased crude oil output from Kazakhstan, particularly from the Chevron-operated Tengiz oil field. As greater volumes move through the CPC pipeline, exporters increasingly are choosing the more cost-efficient and larger Suezmax tankers. As a bonus, logistical efficiencies realised through fewer port stops and lower per-barrel shipping expenses have solidified the transition to these larger tankers. Infrastructure enhancement at the CPC terminal has further helped fuel this trend by facilitating easier handling of the larger tanker class.
Asian Buyers Expand Their Share of CPC Crude
Although Italy continues to be the primary destination for CPC crude, at 25 per cent of shipments, increasing proportions of exports have been going to Asian destinations. India now receives approximately 8 per cent of CPC crude exports, and China has received almost 6 per cent. These longer distances tend to favour the deployment of Suezmax ships, which are more capable for longer routes owing to greater capacity and fuel efficiency in terms of ton-miles.
Fleet Usage Demonstrates Strategic Shift
The present mix of tankers indicates a discernible strategic shift. Suezmax ships now account for 63.4 per cent of total CPC crude cargos, down from Aframax tankers to 36.6 per cent. This development indicates not just destination market changes but also a wider drive for commercial efficiency through the supply chain. The shift points to how operational preferences are changing to meet global demand and route economics.
Temporary Aframax Spike Likely in June
In spite of the evident trend towards Suezmax tankers, sources from the industry indicate that Aframax utilisation might increase temporarily in June 2025. This will most probably be caused by short-term inventory draws or certain port restrictions and not an indication of a change in the larger trend. The general direction, though, remains strongly biased toward Suezmax supremacy as long-haul exports to Asia continue to be an essential part of CPC’s trade volumes.
Strategic and Geopolitical Implications
This tanker switch at CPC is just one example of a broader shift to fleet optimisation in response to shifting geopolitical and commercial circumstances. While Russian-origin barrels blending with CPC crude is not an immediate reaction to political factors, these are still on the back of the minds of buyers and shippers as they seek flexibility and compliance. These operating decisions are increasingly becoming strategically important.
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Source: Break Wave Advisors
