Crude Tanker Market Update: VLCC, Suezmax, And Aframax Trends

The VLCC market started the week on a soft note, but activity surged in the last two days as MEG cargoes (March 25-31 window) clashed with early April stems.

• Rates have stabilized as owners resisted further drops.
• The Atlantic position list is thinning, with Brazil and West Africa exports drawing tonnage from the East.
• USG remains quiet, with Chinese buyers cautious due to Trump’s trade policies. VLCCs in the region may have to relocate or face extended waiting periods.

Suezmax Market

• High activity in Europe and West Africa is rapidly depleting vessel supply, forcing charterers to secure tonnage early and pay premiums.
• April stems in West Africa, Liza, and Brazil are drawing forward chartering interest.
• CPC/Mediterranean fixtures are rising, with WS 120 already reported.
• Reintroduction of sub-price cap Urals trade is increasing demand, creating a favorable scenario for owners.
• USG remains slow, with Aframax rates undermining Suezmax demand.
• VLCC quiet period for early April could boost Suezmax demand.
• MEG remains balanced, but vessels may ballast to the Cape of Good Hope or transit the Red Sea for better opportunities.

Aframax Market

North Sea:

• Activity is sporadic, and natural dates are shifting to late March.
• March-end could bring more activity, but early tonnage must clear for rates to rise.
• Ballasting to alternative regions may offer better returns.

Mediterranean:

• Some early-week activity, but position list remains healthy.
• Firm Suezmax market could reduce part-loading demand for Aframax vessels.
• Late March Aframax stems are fuller than mid-March, which may push rates upward.
• Sustained activity is needed for meaningful rate improvements.

Market Outlook

• VLCC rates could see resistance against further drops, but USG remains weak.
• Suezmax demand is strong in West Africa and Europe, while the Urals trade adds another bullish factor.
• Aframax rates in the Med and North Sea require sustained activity to rise, but Suezmax trends may help improve the outlook.

The coming weeks will be pivotal as charterers and owners navigate an evolving market landscape.