- Targeting models strengthened through live data access and AI fusion.
- High-risk waters see increased correlation between cyber queries and strikes.
- CCTV intrusions support targeting refinement and damage assessment.
A recent maritime intelligence brief sheds light on how cyber campaigns and regional flashpoints are significantly altering risk patterns for commercial shipping operations. The assessment highlights a surge in cyber reconnaissance, an increase in proxy activities, and destabilising military postures across various regions, reports Safety4Sea.
Expanding Iranian Cyber Reconnaissance Capabilities
The brief explains how actors linked to Iran are increasingly blending cyber intelligence with real-world attacks.
AIS Exploitation in High-Risk Waters
Operators affiliated with the IRGC have been spending considerable time infiltrating commercial AIS platforms to extract real-time vessel positions. One notable incident involved gathering tracking data for a U.S.-flagged vessel, which was followed days later by an attempted missile strike on the same target.
Use of Compromised CCTV for Targeting
Operators connected to MOIS gained anonymised access to camera networks in Jerusalem just before a significant missile barrage, utilising live feeds to fine-tune their target selection and evaluate the results of their strikes.
Expected Trends Into 2026
The analysis suggests that Iranian networks and their partner groups are likely to ramp up their exploitation of AIS, IoT, and CCTV technologies through 2026, leveraging AI-enabled data fusion for quicker and more accurate targeting.
Rising Military Tensions in the Caribbean
An increasing U.S. military presence around Venezuela is viewed as a response to the growing involvement of Russia, China, and Iran in the region. This military buildup indicates a broader geopolitical contest that is extending into the Western Hemisphere.
Possible Impacts on Commercial Maritime Operations
The brief outlines several potential consequences for vessel operators and insurers, including:
- Disruptions or halts in the flow of Venezuelan crude and refined products
- The potential establishment of restricted or exclusion zones in the southeastern Caribbean
- Rapid changes in war-risk insurance premiums and routing models
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Source: Safety4Sea
