Pacific Ocean dry bulk trades are starting to push the freight market to new heights recently, offsetting part of the limited activity in the Atlantic market. According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, “we have started to some sparks of life in the commodities markets these past weeks, with prices having shown a strong push during the past couple of days especially for iron ore. This has been in line with the restart of the main trade growth engines of the Far East which have started to gain “steam”. Chinese exports showed a year-on-year rise for the first time in ten months, while S. Korea has been showing increased figures in exports for the past three months in a row. This is not just limited to these two players in the region, with strong exports being in the works for Japan, Singapore and Taiwan.”
According to Allied Shipbroking’s George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, “it seems as though the Far East’s manufacturing power houses have started to regain their strength, pulling in with them several commodities and possibly paving the route for increased demand for trade as other countries in the region start to slowly take up the role of low-end manufacturing hubs. This in combination with a more optimistic views on the global economic growth figures for this year and it seems as though the slowly growing optimism in the markets is gaining pace”.
Still, as Lazaridis points out, “the Trump effect however still looms in the background, providing good reason for most to keep a restrain on optimism. Most of these increases in trade in the Far East are boosted by the high-tech industry and although consumer confidence seems to be in better shape than it has been during the course of the past couple of years, any strains that start emerge between nations and any increase in tariffs could dampen the positive gains. The U.S. is still an underlining risk in this regard as it threatens to close of its borders through increased tariffs. This is not just limited to end consumer products but leaves a risk in several commodities. In reference to this latter point, it is worth mentioning that although it will be hard to create a real alternative for all this raw resources the U.S. imports, any increase in tariffs will surely hurt consumers within the U.S. while any decreases in the purchasing power could easily erase any growth in trade that would be hoped for”.
Allied Shipbroking’s analyst added that “for the moment however we seem to be seeing a more optimistic side to the market. Trading of the steel industries main ingredient rose by 7 per cent, reaching their highest level since 2013. At the same time, seaborne trade coal has seen good news pile on, with the recent announcement by China of a ban on coal imports from North Korea leaving many local steel mills to scramble in order to find alternative supplies (many of which will likely by from sources further away). All this will help further boost the freight market in the Pacific, which since the early part of February has already shown positive signs and strong activity levels. The problem at the moment however has been the slower feel of the Atlantic which has starved the overall dry bulk markets from support that could help easily drive a fair rally”.
Lazaridis concludes though that “nevertheless, if activity in the Pacific manages to hold off at such strong levels during the remainder of the first quarter and even through onto the second quarter of 2017, the market should start to show some fairly strong levels once the grain season in the Atlantic goes into full swing. For the moment it seems that we have a lot of favourable winds moving in the dry bulk market’s direction. A lot is riding on how well the Asian powerhouses will be able to feed off their own gains and show greater self-reliance rather than being as dependent as they have been in the past to the purchasing power of consumers in the U.S. and Europe”, Allied’s analyst concluded.
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Source: Allied Shipbroking
