The Drewry Dry Bulk Equity Index experienced notable volatility in the first half of 2025 (1H25). The index saw a sharp decline around Liberation Day, suggesting a significant market event or shift in investor sentiment on that specific date.
Company Performance Highlights
Several dry bulk shipping companies have shown varied performance year-to-date (YTD) in 2025:
- Pacific Basin and Star Bulk have been top performers, with YTD share price gains of 23.7% and 20.0%, respectively. These increases are attributed to share buybacks and heightened interest from shipping-focused investors. Specifically, Caravel acquired approximately a 16% stake in Pacific Basin, and John Fredriksen took about a 10% stake in Star Bulk.
- DS Norden’s share price also saw a positive rise of 6.6%, largely propelled by robust 1Q25 results and the impact of the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict on freight dynamics.
- In contrast, Diana Shipping experienced a notable decline of 22.4% YTD. Its sharpest drop occurred during the tariff war and the company has yet to recover fully.
- Golden Ocean also saw a decline following its acquisition by CMB.Tech at a price below its Net Asset Value (NAV). Golden Ocean is expected to be delisted from stock exchanges upon the completion of its merger with CMB.Tech.
Dry Bulk Market Sentiment and TCE Rates
The overall sentiment in the dry bulk shipping market has remained cautious in the first half of 2025. This is due to a confluence of factors including persistent economic uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and sluggish demand from major economies.
Consequently, Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) rates on key routes for dry bulk vessels contracted by 23.8% in 1H25 compared to 2024. The most significant declines were observed in the larger vessel segments:
- Capesize TCE rates fell by 56.2%.
- Panamax TCE rates decreased by 44.9%.
- In stark contrast, Supramax was the only vessel segment to show an improvement, with TCE rates increasing by 10.8%, primarily due to tight supply on certain key routes.
Second-Hand and Newbuild Asset Prices
Second-hand vessel prices have been on a general decline, reflecting the subdued market confidence:
- Newbuild resale prices for Handysize vessels fell 6.9% YTD.
- Panamax vessels saw a 3.9% YTD decline in newbuild resale prices.
- Supramax vessels experienced a 2.8% YTD drop in newbuild resale prices.
- Conversely, the asset price of newbuild Capesize vessels has remained relatively stable, with only a 0.6% YTD decline. This stability is attributed to a lower orderbook-to-fleet ratio for Capesize vessels compared to other segments, suggesting a less pronounced oversupply in future deliveries for this size.
Fleet Renewal Strategies
Dry bulk shipping companies under review are prioritizing fleet renewal to adapt to market conditions and optimize their operations:
- DS Norden has been particularly active, leading the pack with the sale of 14 vessels and the placement of seven newbuild orders in 2025.
- Other covered companies, including Star Bulk, Pacific Basin, and Golden Ocean, also engaged in vessel sales during the same period, selling six, three, and two vessels, respectively.
- Diana Shipping sold one vessel.
- Notably, apart from DS Norden, other companies under coverage have not placed newbuilding orders in 2025, having already committed to tonnage additions in 2024.
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Source: Drewry
