- A new study has been released that analyses the coronavirus infection onboard Diamond Princess.
- A number of cases could have been drastically reduced if they were allowed to disembark.
- The study followed mathematical modeling to predict the outcome.
- A team led by Prof. Joacim Rocklöv of Umeå University published the findings of the study.
- Early evacuation of all passengers on a cruise ship is recommended as soon as an outbreak of COVID-19 is confirmed.
According to an article published in the Journal of Travel Medicine, a new study highlighted that the number of people affected by coronavirus could have been drastically reduced if they were allowed to disembark.
What happened?
The study published in the Journal of Travel Medicine compared the known transmission rates of the virus at the point of its origin in China’s Wuhan, to the transmission rate onboard the cruise ship.
The study followed mathematical modeling, a team led by Prof. Joacim Rocklöv of Umeå University resulted that the initial rate aboard the cruise ship was found to be four times higher than that on land. If left unchecked throughout the period in which passengers were onboard – January 21 through February 19, the end of the quarantine period – roughly 2,920 out of the 3,700 people on board (about 80 percent) would likely have been infected.
Disease outbreak amplified
The report highlights that the cruise ship conditions amplified an already highly transmissible disease; Population densities and mixing need to be taken into account in future modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in different settings.
Early evacuation of all passengers on a cruise ship- a situation with confined spaces and high intermixing- is recommended as soon as an outbreak of COVID-19 is confirmed.
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Source: JournalofTravelMedicine
