DNV has published the 2025 edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050, signalling that global shipping is moving into a new and more demanding phase of the energy transition. While the fleet of alternative-fuel vessels is expanding rapidly, DNV warns that fuel supply and port infrastructure risk falling behind, potentially slowing progress toward decarbonization targets.
Alternative Fuels Growing Fast, But Supply Remains Limited
DNV’s analysis shows that by 2030, alternative-fuelled ships will collectively be capable of consuming over 50 Mtoe of low-GHG fuels each year, with the number of such vessels nearly doubling by 2028. However, global production of low-GHG fuels is forecast at only 70–100 Mtoe annually by 2030, and shipping is expected to receive just a small share of that supply.
The report points to three key barriers holding back large-scale adoption: technology and safety requirements, high costs and uncertain demand, and insufficient fuel availability. With new and complex regulations emerging, DNV stresses that early planning is essential for shipowners, ports, and energy suppliers.
Carbon Capture and Wind Propulsion Gain Ground
DNV notes that onboard carbon capture and storage (CCS) could help reduce emissions from bulkers, tankers, and container ships by up to 19%, contributing to 9% total emission reductions but only if vessels are retrofitted and major ports install CO₂ offloading infrastructure.
CO₂ storage capacity is projected to rise to 60–85 Mt by 2030, an increase from last year’s estimate. The forecast also highlights growing momentum for wind-assisted propulsion, which is already delivering 5–20% fuel savings annually, and up to 30% in favourable conditions.
Unveiled in London by lead author Eirik Ovrum alongside DNV Maritime CEO Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen and IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez, the 2025 forecast underscores a central message: the maritime industry cannot meet future decarbonization targets unless vessels, fuel suppliers, and ports progress together. As shipping enters a critical stage of the energy transition, coordinated investment in technology, infrastructure, and clean fuel production will determine whether the sector stays on track.
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Source: PORT NEWS
