Drewry’s latest Cancelled Sailings Tracker reveals a 13% cancellation rate across major shipping routes for September and October. With China’s Golden Week approaching, carriers are proactively adjusting to weaker cargo demand, particularly on Transpacific routes.
Weekly analysis: 06 September 2024
Across the major East-West headhaul trades: Transpacific, Transatlantic and Asia-North Europe & Med, 89 cancelled sailings have been announced between week 37 (9 Sep-15 Sep) and week 41 (7 Oct-13 Oct), out of a total of 696 scheduled sailings, representing 13% cancellation rate.
During this period, 66% of the blank sailings will occur on the Transpacific Eastbound, 26% on the Asia-North Europe and Med and 8% on the Transatlantic Westbound trade.
Over the next five weeks, THE Alliance have announced 24 cancellations, followed by OCEAN Alliance and 2M with 20 and 14 cancellations, respectively. During the same period, 31 blank sailings have been implemented by non-Alliance services.
Impact of China’s Golden Week Holiday on Cargo Demand
As can be seen in the chart above, we are seeing a decline in the schedule reliability; on average 87% of the ships are expected to sail as scheduled, over the next five weeks.
On 5 September, Drewry’s WCI Composite Index declined, with rates dropping 8% WoW to $4,775 per 40ft container. Rates on Asia-North Europe and Med routes fell 14% and 12%, while Transpacific rates decreased 2% and Transatlantic rates rose 16%.
Carrier Adjustments and Recommendations for Shippers and BCOs
As East-West spot rates continue to decline (with the exception of the Transatlantic westbound route) and demand of cargo from China remains weak leading up to China’s Golden Week holiday (October 1-7), the usual surge in bookings ahead of factory shutdowns has been notably lower than usual. This year, the peak shipping season began earlier, which is likely to cause an early drop in cargo flow from China.
In anticipation of the holiday period and its impact on demand and workforce availability, carriers are introducing blank sailings to adjust capacity accordingly. Shippers and BCO’s should monitor closely their bookings to avoid last minute cancellation.
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Source: Drewry
