- Dry bulk sale and purchase activity has reached historic highs, with significant demand across various ship sizes.
- Tanker sale and purchase activity is notably weak, marking the lowest in five years.
- Price adjustments in both sectors may be needed to maintain market momentum due to shifting freight conditions.
The dry bulk sector has seen remarkable strength in 2024, with 605 sales of vessels over 20kdwt, marking the second-highest volume in history. This represents an increase of 46 transactions compared to the same period in 2023, reports Breakwave Advisors.
Dominance of Ultramax, Supramax, and Handysize Vessels
Within dry bulk, geared sizes led the activity, with Ultramax/Supramax recording 208 sales, Handysize with 158, and Capesize at 109 sales—the highest number in this category since records began.
“Specifically, the Ultramax/Supramax sector recorded 208 sales.”
Capesize and Panamax Deals Also Show Growth
Increased sales were also seen in Capesize units with 109 deals, along with 105 Panamax/Kamsarmax and 25 Post Panamax sales in 2024.
“Capesize units saw significant interest, with 109 deals concluded in the first ten months.”
Drop in October Dry Bulk Sales
Despite high transaction volumes, October marked a slowdown in dry bulk sales—the lowest since December 2022.
“October has recorded the lowest volume of dry bulk sale and purchase transactions since December 2022.”
Tanker Market Slumps to Five-Year Low
In contrast, tanker sales have slowed considerably in 2024, totaling 268 transactions, the lowest in five years.
“Tanker sale and purchase activity has been the weakest in the past five years.”
Tanker Sales Led by MR2 Units
The majority of tanker transactions involved MR2 units, with 114 sales, followed by Aframax/LR2 (45) and fewer transactions in VLCC, Handysize, Suezmax, and Panamax categories.
“MR2 units dominate with 114 transactions, followed by 45 Aframax/LR2 deals.”
October Records the Lowest Tanker Transactions
October’s low tanker activity mirrors trends seen in the dry bulk sector, with sales reaching their lowest level since July 2020.
“The past month saw the lowest number of tanker transactions since July 2020.”
Demand for Secondhand Dry Bulk Vessels Stays Strong
Interest in secondhand dry bulk vessels has remained high, driven by current freight conditions, though price adjustments may be needed to sustain buyer interest.
“A price correction in dry bulk vessel valuations may be necessary to sustain buyer momentum.”
Tanker Prices at 2008 Levels, Freight Earnings Differ
Tanker valuations now match highs last seen in 2008. However, time charter earnings do not reflect this increase, suggesting potential overvaluation.
“Secondhand prices have reached levels last observed in 2008.”
Market Outlook Suggests Price Correction
With uncertainties surrounding both sectors, adjusting prices in dry bulk and tankers could stimulate further activity as freight market dynamics shift.
“A reduction in secondhand vessel prices may be required to stimulate sale and purchase activity.”
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
