Freight
December is ablaze with unwavering optimism, propelled by the remarkable resurgence of rates in the Capesize and Panamax vessel size categories, soaring to unprecedented heights within a year.
Capesize vessel freight rates from Brazil to North China reached $30/tonne, up 12% on the previous week and 50% on the previous month.
Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East rose to $46 per tonne, up 25% from the same week a month ago.
Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route held a similar momentum over the last three weeks at $13 per tonne, 18% higher than in the same week a year ago.
Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route have not yet reached a different momentum and are still at $29-30/tonne, only 5% higher than a month ago.
Supply
The number of ballasters dropped eventually below the annual average for SE Africa in the Capesize and Panamax segments, while there are signs of a decrease in the smaller vessel segments.
Capesize SE Africa: The number of ballasters dropped below 90, which is the latest low after the level of week 40 (~76).
Panamax SE Africa: The number of ballasters dropped to 86, which is surprisingly low when the last peak was reached in week 38 (~160).
Supramax SE Asia: The number of ballast ships dropped to 100, 17 lower than the previous week, with the first decrease after a constant upward trend in the previous five consecutive weeks.
Handysize NOPAC: The number of ballast ships dropped below 80 when a week ago was nearing a peak of 100, while the latest low remained at week 44 (~76).
Demand
Demand growth is still in a downward trend amid the recovery of freight rates seen in early December, while there seems to be a later rebound in the next few days along with the performance of freight rates.
Capesize: The downward trend continues amid the spikes in freight rates, while it remains to be seen whether there will be a soon upturn with the latest dynamic swings reported in the freight market.
Panamax: The downward correction remained persistent, with the decrease following previous weekly drops, but growth levels are higher than the lows recorded more than ten weeks ago.
Supramax: The growth rate is still at its lowest level since the end of week 44, however, the evolution is improved compared to the sharp downward revision in the Handysize.
Handysize: Demand growth dropped further and reached even the lowest level of the bottom recorded a week ago.
Port congestion
The number of dry bulk vessels congested at Chinese ports has shown an upward trend over the last three weeks, with a significant increase in congestion in the Supramax segment.
Capesize: The number of congested vessels has been held at levels of 100 over the last seven weeks and with not yet signs of falling below this mark.
Panamax: The number of congested ships rose to 198, while indications of the previous week were showing levels of more than 200.
Supramax: The number of ships stood 255, with an increase of over 230 since the end of week 45.
Handysize: The number of congested ships now stands at 171, which is 3 more than in the previous week, whereas two weeks ago there were signs of an increase to almost 180.
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Source : Break wave
