- Dry bulk carrier newbuilding contracts fell 63% y-o-y in Jan–Jul 2025, with owners cautious amid high costs and regulations.
- Capesize orders lead activity, while Panamax and Handysize segments remain quiet due to young fleets and large order books.
- Secondhand market stays active, with notable Capesize sales and Ultramax en bloc deals supporting market liquidity.
- Freight rates show resilience in Capesizes, while grain exports and Chinese steel demand continue to underpin Subcape sectors.
The dry bulk carrier newbuilding market has slowed considerably in 2025, as shipowners adopt a more cautious stance in the face of elevated prices, regulatory complexities, and shifting global trade conditions. Compared with last year’s record levels, contracting has dropped sharply, signaling a period of recalibration for the sector. According to the latest report from BRS Shipbrokers, this trend highlights a more selective approach to fleet expansion.
Newbuilding and Market Trends
From January to July 2025, newbuilding contracts totaled 15.46 million dwt, a 63% year-on-year decline following 2024’s record 63.91 million dwt. Prices remain close to last year’s peak, with China’s Dry Bulk Price Index just 3.3% lower. Capesizes dominate contracting with 57% of orders by dwt, supported by COSCO’s “National Cargo, National Fleet” initiative and limited methanol dual-fuel projects. In contrast, orders for Panamax and Handysize vessels are scarce, as existing orderbooks already represent 22% and 25% of their active fleets, while average fleet ages—13.5 years for Panamax and 11.8 years for Supramax—suggest significant remaining service life. Greek orders have fallen to fifth place globally, with only three vessels placed in 2025.
The secondhand market has seen 20 bulkers (1.47 million dwt) sold in the past two weeks, down 32% from the prior period. Activity included two Capesizes and one Baby Cape changing hands, compared with just one at the end of July. Notably, five-year-old Capesizes are valued at around $61.3 million, marking a 2% annual increase, while a block sale of four ten-year-old Ultramaxes achieved $84 million, reportedly purchased by a Singapore-based buyer.
Freight earnings provide mixed signals: Capesize C5TC rates are steady near $27,000 per day, while Panamax earnings remain under pressure despite support from ECSA grain exports. Demand is bolstered by elevated Chinese steel exports, with structural drivers including limited Subcape orders this year, slower sailing speeds, and continued Cape of Good Hope reroutings. Overall, the restrained ordering activity of 2025 is shaping the fleet outlook for the next two to three years, with trade flows and regulatory frameworks likely to play a defining role.
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Source: BRS Shipbrokers
