Newbuilding orders for dry bulk carriers have dropped 63% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting investor caution amid high construction costs and softening sentiment. Despite the slowdown, the secondhand market—particularly for Capesize vessels—continues to show surprising resilience and selective strength, reports BRS Shipbrokers.
Newbuilding Market Highlights:
- 15.46 mln dwt contracted in Jan–Jul 2025, down 63% y-o-y, following 2024’s record 63.91 mln dwt
- China Newbuilding Dry Bulk Price Index just 3.3% below its 2024 peak
- Capesizes dominate with 57% share by dwt, boosted by COSCO’s “National Cargo, National Fleet” programme and select methanol dual-fuel orders
- Panamax & Handysize orders are minimal, with existing orderbooks already at 22% and 25% of their active fleets
- Average fleet ages: Panamax 13.5 years, Supramax 11.8 years – suggesting plenty of remaining service life
- Greek orders drop to fifth place globally, with only three vessels booked in 2025
Secondhand Market Highlights (Past Two Weeks):
- 20 bulkers (1.47 mln dwt) sold, down 32% from the previous period
- Two Capesizes + one Baby Cape changed hands, compared to just one in late July
- Five-year-old Capesize values around $61.3 mln, up 2% y-o-y
- Four Ultramaxes (10 years old) sold en bloc for $84 mln to a rumoured Singapore buyer
Freight & Demand Trends:
- Capesize C5TC earnings holding at ~$27,000/day
- Panamax earnings under pressure, but ECSA grain flows offer support
- Elevated Chinese steel exports underpin geared bulker demand
- Structural supports: few Subcape orders in 2025, lower sailing speeds, ongoing Cape of Good Hope reroutings
The dry bulk order slump in 2025 reflects a cautious market recalibration after last year’s record surge. While most owners have sat out the newbuilding race so far, selective opportunities in the secondhand market, supported by resilient Cape earnings and targeted demand in Subcape sectors, are keeping activity alive. Fleet fundamentals in 2-3 years’ time will be shaped by today’s restrained ordering, shifting trade flows, and evolving environmental regulations.
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Source: BRS Shipbrokers
