Dry Bulk Market Insights: Mixed Signals Across Capesize, Panamax And Supramax Segments



On the C5 front, we see healthy volumes from miners, operators, and several tenders alike for first half of March dates. In comparison, things are quieter on the East Australia, Pacific, and Indian business front with limited enquiries. Volumes on South Africa ticked up slightly from last week. On C3 ex Brazil to China and West Africa, enquiries are present primarily for mid-March dates. Far East tonnage is moderately abundant while ballasting tonnage weighs heavily on the second half of March. Number of ballasters for February is scarce while numbers for first half of March are thinning. On C5, the week started off with mid-high USD 9 pmt levels, retreating to mid USD 9 pmt levels by mid-week. On C3, rates held up from last week, concluding at high USD 23 pmt to low USD 24 pmt levels for mid-March dates.


This Panamax market outlook indicates a potential rise in the Kamsarmax index to the low twenty thousand USD per day within the next month, driven by ECSAM grain exports and an expected seasonal pattern, although the peak might slightly lower at around USD 18,000-19,000 per day. The BPI timecharter index has also seen an increase, with the Pacific basin showing significant gains while the Atlantic remained sluggish. The market momentum in the Pacific has been robust, particularly with the P6 route seeing rates climb, signaling a busy start post the Chinese New Year holiday. However, the North Atlantic shows a flat outlook with low grain and mineral route activities, potentially softening unless new volume emerges. Overall, the sentiment is marginally positive with expectations for the market level depending on increased volume, especially with China’s return to work post-holiday.


It seems like seasonality is playing out as usual. The ballaster/laden vessel ratio have dropped to around the lowest levels seen the last few years, which reflects the high shipment volume growth (9% year on year in January). A high share of the fleet is positioned in the North Atlantic/Mediterranean/Continent. A still low share of the fleet is positioned in the South Atlantic.

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Source : Fearn pulse