The Baltic Exchange reported a dynamic Week 49 for the dry-bulk sector, with clear momentum in some vessel classes and softer sentiment in others. The market moved through early optimism, a strong mid-week upswing and a calmer close, revealing an outlook shaped by shifting regional demand, changing tonnage levels and selective chartering activity.
Capesize: Atlantic Tightness Drives a Strong Mid-Week Rally
The Capesize market delivered a firm performance from start to finish. The week began with steady strength, supported by active miner demand in the Pacific. Tonnage remained tight, and this allowed C5 values to stay in the low-to-mid $12 range. Although sentiment softened slightly toward the end of the week, returning miners helped maintain support.
However, the most notable driver came from the North Atlantic. The region faced exceptionally scarce tonnage, and this triggered a strong mid-week rally. A handful of standout fixtures lifted both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul activity. As a result, the BCI 5TC climbed sharply and reached $44,000.
In addition, the South Brazil and West Africa routes to China showed gradual strength. C3 levels increased through mid-week as fresh fixtures surfaced, although the pace cooled again by the week’s end. Overall, the Capesize segment displayed a confident upward trend, shaped largely by tight availability in the Atlantic and sustained iron-ore demand in the Pacific.
Panamax: More Tonnage and Limited Cargo Hold Back Rates
The Panamax market opened the week with a softer tone. Prompt tonnage increased both in the Atlantic and Asia, and this pushed owners to become more flexible. Through mid-week, fresh enquiries remained limited, while vessel supply continued to rise. This imbalance kept sentiment low and encouraged charterers to remain selective.
The Pacific market faced the strongest pressure. Indonesian and North Pacific trades offered limited support, and grain demand softened further. As tonnage lists swelled, owners struggled to secure firmer numbers. Period activity grew more active, but it did not shift the overall tone.
Meanwhile, the Atlantic showed brief signs of improvement on Thursday. A sharp Capesize rally and talk of possible stem splits generated some interest. Even so, the wide gap between bids and offers prevented stronger gains. By the end of the week, cautious charterers, resistant owners, and steady vessel supply held the market in check. The P5TC closed at $16,767.
Ultramax/Supramax: Mixed Conditions With Regional Divergence
The Ultramax and Supramax segments saw a positional and region-dependent week. The Atlantic started quietly, but demand in the US Gulf improved as the week progressed. Rates strengthened, and a 52,000-dwt achieved levels in the low $30,000s for a trans-Atlantic run.
In contrast, the South Atlantic came under pressure. Demand weakened, and fixtures reflected this softening. One 63,000-dwt secured a trip from Santos to Karachi at $16,750 plus a $675,000 ballast bonus. Asia followed a similar pattern. Demand declined and rates slipped, highlighted by a Supramax fixed in the upper $15,000s for a Southeast Asia–Indonesia–China trip.
However, the Indian Ocean offered a brighter tone. More cargo activity supported firmer levels, and a 63,000-dwt fixed from East Coast India via South Africa to China at $17,000. With the holiday season approaching, the sector may see further shifts as charterers and owners adjust their strategies.
Handysize: Firm Gains in the Americas but Softer in Asia
The Handysize market delivered a mixed performance. Several regions showed stable conditions, while others recorded clear gains. In the Continent and Mediterranean, activity remained limited. Rates edged slightly higher, including a 38,000-dwt fixed for a trip from the Continent to the US East Coast at $15,000.
The U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic markets stood out as the strongest performers. A tight tonnage list supported higher rates. Charterers gradually increased their bids to secure vessels. Notable fixtures included a 40,000-dwt fixed from Port Alfred to Casablanca via St. Lawrence at $24,000, and a 37,000-dwt fixed from Santos via Argentina to Dakar with grains at $20,150.
Meanwhile, Asia held steady but remained subdued. Fundamentals did not shift significantly. Rates hovered around last-done levels, including a 43,000-dwt fixed from Bunbury to China with alumina at $17,500. The region continues to face a quieter end-of-year pattern, shaped by stable supply and cautious demand.
Weekly Outlook: Strength with Caution Across Segments
Across all segments, Week 49 highlighted a market influenced by shifting demand patterns and contrasting regional conditions. Capesizes showed strong upward momentum driven by Atlantic tightness. Panamaxes faced more pressure from the growing vessel supply. The Ultramax/Supramax sector is split between firmer U.S. Gulf activity and weaker Asia-Pacific conditions. Handysize demand grew distinctly stronger in the Americas.
The coming weeks may bring additional volatility as the holiday season nears and trading activity adjusts. Tonnage availability, grain flows, miner programs, and regional demand shifts will continue to shape the short-term outlook across the dry-bulk market.
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Source: Baltic Exchange
