As reported in Commodore Research’s most recent Weekly Executive Report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its initial projections for the upcoming 2025/26 grain trade season. The forecast indicates a very impressive collective total of 720.2 million tons for global coarse grain, wheat, soybean, and soymeal exports, reports Breakwave Advisors.
Significant Rebound
Global grain exports are projected to see a significant rebound in the upcoming 2025/26 season, with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasting a total increase of 26.9 million tons (4%) to reach 693.4 million tons. This follows an anticipated year-on-year contraction of 18 million tons (-3%) for the current 2024/25 grain season. Stronger harvests across coarse grain, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal drive the expected growth in 2025/26.
This growth in cargo volume is seen as necessary, considering the continued expansion of the global dry bulk fleet, which is projected to grow by a net addition of at least another 350 vessels in 2025.
Coarse Grain Exports Forecast
The USDA forecasts global coarse grain exports to reach 238 million tons in 2025/26, an increase of 11.3 million tons (5%) from the 226.7 million tons expected in the current 2024/25 season. Coarse-grain exports are expected to remain the largest cargo by volume within the grain market.
- A fairly large year-on-year increase in coarse grain exports is anticipated from the United States.
- Argentina and Ukraine are expected to contribute moderate year-on-year increases in coarse grain exports.
- A very small year-on-year decline in coarse grain exports is projected from Brazil.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
