This week’s charts reveal a notable surge in Capesize freight market rates for the Brazil to North China route (left chart), accompanied by a decline in the number of ballasters. This pattern is reminiscent of the trend observed at the end of June, where a similar relationship between blasters and Baltic rates was highlighted, reports Breakwave Advisors.
Mixed Performance
The dry bulk freight market has presented a mixed performance, with rates on the Cape Brazil to North China routes gradually improving since the end of week 30, while the Panamax Continent to Far East route continues to experience a persistent downward trend.
- Capesize vessel freight rates for shipments from Brazil to North China rose to $27 per ton, reflecting a significant 19% increase month-over-month.
- Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East have remained below $40 per ton since early August, recently approaching $37 per ton—a decline of 13% compared to the previous month.
- Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route have remained steady since mid-June, consistently hovering around $11 per ton. This week’s rates are 20% higher than those recorded during the same period last year.
- Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route held steady at approximately $36 per ton. This marks a notable 20% increase compared to rates observed one year ago.
Declining Trend
In the first week of September, the number of ballasters in the large dry vessel size categories has shown a declining trend, while the Handysize NOPAC market is seeing signs of an increase.
- Capesize SE Africa: The number of ballast ships has decreased to 113, marking a drop of 29 vessels from the peak observed at the end of week 33.
- Panamax SE Africa: The current number hovers close to the annual average of 140, now down by over 20 vessels compared to levels observed just two weeks ago.
- Supramax SE Asia: The count of ballast ships has recently fallen below the annual average of 100, signaling a downward trend as September begins.
- Handysize NOPAC: Since the end of week 19, the number of ballast vessels has consistently stayed below the annual average. However, in the first week of September, there are signs of an increase, with figures approaching the annual average.
Dry Tonne Outlook
In the first week of September, the outlook for dry tonne days showed an upward trend across most segments, except for the Handysize segment, which has continued to experience a persistent decline over the past four weeks.
- Capesize: Recent estimates indicate a steady recovery in tonne-day growth, improving consistently since the low point observed at the end of week 32.
- Panamax: Weekly percentage growth is on an upward trend in early September, with the Panamax and Capesize segments showing particularly strong recovery from the lows recorded during the summer season.
- Supramax: The growth rate maintained its upward trajectory since the end of week 27, with continuous improvement seen from the first half of August.
- Handysize: The upward trend in the Handysize vessel segment reversed after the end of week 27, continuing to show a downward shift into the first week of September.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
