Dry Bulk Market Sees Mixed Momentum As Capesizes Surge And Panamaxes Pause

By
Mfame Editor
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59

The global dry bulk shipping market continues to present a dynamic picture across vessel segments. Capesizes are enjoying strong gains driven by tightening tonnage and solid demand from Brazil and West Africa.

Panamaxes, however, softened mid-week after a firm start, with both Atlantic and Pacific markets turning cautious. Supramaxes and Handysizes remain resilient amid consistent demand and a tightening supply of vessels, particularly in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions. Meanwhile, time charter rates continue to trend upward, supported by improved sentiment and forward activity.

Capesize: Atlantic Rally Accelerates

Capesize vessels recorded handsome daily earnings this week as Atlantic activity surged, led by rising demand for August loadings out of Brazil, West Africa, and North Atlantic. The list of ballasters is shrinking, pushing owners’ confidence higher. In the Pacific, momentum is also building—though moderately—driven by multiple fixtures from major miners on the West Australia/China route.

While the index lags, physical market indications show:

  • Brazil/China around $22/tonne

  • West Australia/China near $9/tonne

  • Daily earnings exceeding $20,000 on round voyages and approaching $23,000 on wider averages.

  • Rates:

    • TCE Cont/Far East: $38,125 (+$312)

    • Australia/China: $8.79/tonne (+$0.37)

    • Pacific RV: $16,464 (+$1,496)

Panamax: Sentiment Softens Midweek

Panamax market sentiment began the week strong—fueled by tight tonnage and grain demand from the North Atlantic and ECSA. But as the week progressed, uncertainty in the FFA market led to a pullback from charterers, widening bid-offer gaps and muted activity.

In the Pacific, despite consistent cargo flow, rising vessel availability and weak paper sentiment weighed on rates. The market is now positional, awaiting renewed grain activity from South America to determine direction.

  • Rates:

    • Transatlantic RV: $21,350 (–$100)

    • TCE Cont/Far East: $26,875 (–$125)

    • TCE Far East/Cont: $8,944 (–$87)

    • TCE Far East RV: $14,788 (–$95)

Supramax & Handysize: Firming Continues

The Supramax market maintained upward momentum, with tight prompt tonnage and demand from the US Gulf, South Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Charterers faced strong owner sentiment in both the Continent and Mediterranean, while Asian markets also held firm, albeit with bid-offer gaps on some lanes.

The Handysize segment sustained a positive tone, supported by improving confidence and cargo demand across both basins.

  • Supramax Rates:

    • Transatlantic RV: $20,600 (+$612)

    • US Gulf–China/South Japan: $28,379 (+$822)

    • South China–Indonesia RV: $13,531 (+$265)

Time Charter Rates: Gains Across Segments

A bullish undertone persisted across 1-year T/C rates, with notable gains in Panamax, Kamsarmax, and Newcastlemax classes, suggesting improved medium-term confidence.

  • 1-Year T/C Rates (USD/day):

    • Newcastlemax (208′): $24,000 (+$1,250)

    • Capesize (180′): $20,000 (+$1,250)

    • Kamsarmax (82′): $16,000 (+$1,500)

    • Panamax (75′): $14,500 (+$1,500)

    • Ultramax (64′): $14,500 (+$1,000)

    • Supramax (58′): $13,250 (+$750)

    • Handysize (38′): $11,000 (unchanged)

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

  • Current: 1,906

  • Change: +40

The dry bulk market is showing healthy signs of recovery, especially in the Capesize segment, which is being buoyed by strong Atlantic demand. Panamaxes are in a wait-and-watch mode, and the Supramax/Handysize sectors remain well-supported across regions. Rising T/C rates suggest improved forward sentiment, and the market outlook now hinges on grain flows from South America and continued strength in iron ore demand.

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Source: FEARNLEYS