- Capesize rates firm on strong Atlantic demand and stable Pacific support
- Panamax market remains charterer-led but shows signs of nearing a base
- Supramax and Handysize segments stay under pressure amid seasonal slowdown
- Year-end inactivity and limited fresh cargoes continue to weigh on sentiment
According to the Fearnleys Weekly Report (Week 51), dry bulk markets are showing a mixed picture as 2025 approaches. While the Capesize segment has posted firming trends driven by Atlantic strength and steady Pacific support, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize sectors continue to face pressure from limited enquiry, ample tonnage, and seasonal year-end slowdown.
Capesize: Atlantic Strength Lifts the Market
The Capesize segment has shown firmer tendencies in recent days, led primarily by strength in the Atlantic and supported by steady demand in the Pacific. Brazilian cargo demand and tightening tonnage lists have been the key drivers, while consistent miner activity in the Pacific has helped maintain stability.
Spot benchmarks moved higher, with C5TC climbing into the low USD 30,000 range and C3 advancing sharply on the back of robust Brazil flows. Fixtures such as Tubarao–China at USD 25 and Kamsar–China at USD 26.50 have reinforced bullish sentiment in the market.
Looking ahead, however, bearish seasonal patterns are expected to re-emerge, with a resumption of the downtrend anticipated as the market moves deeper into the winter period.
Panamax: Pressure Persists but Signs of Stabilisation Emerge
The Panamax market remained under pressure throughout the week, as thin fixing activity across both the Atlantic and Pacific continued to favour charterers. Owner resistance has been gradually softening, reflecting the lack of prompt demand.
In the Atlantic, most prompt demand has been absorbed, with bids now slipping below last-done levels. Increased ballaster supply from a weaker Pacific is adding further pressure on P6, while ECSA cargoes are largely covered into early January.
The Pacific basin remains seasonally soft, characterised by ample prompt tonnage and a scarcity of fresh cargoes, keeping sentiment firmly charterer-led. Despite current weakness, owner behaviour and forward market signals suggest the sector may be approaching a base rather than facing a significantly deeper correction.
Supramax and Handysize: Seasonal Slowdown Weighs on Rates
The Supramax market continues to face pressure across all basins, driven by limited fresh enquiries and an oversupply of available tonnage, which has pushed rates lower.
Similarly, the Handysize sector remains soft, as holiday-related inactivity and cautious sentiment allow charterers to retain control. Overall, the seasonal slowdown and lack of momentum have kept both segments subdued, with no clear signs of near-term recovery.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Fearnleys
