- Tariff disputes are expected to first impact dry bulk carriers amid rising market volatility.
- Tariffs create uncertainty in crude oil trade, with China and the US seeking OPEC alternatives.
- US tariffs on agriculture could escalate trade conflicts, with China turning to Brazil for soybeans.
The shipping industry faces mounting pressure as the US, China, Canada, and the EU engage in reciprocal tariff measures, with dry bulk carriers likely to be the first sector impacted as markets grapple with volatility, reports Platts.
The prevailing sentiment appears to be uncertainty. Freight rates for dry bulkers have started to firm but other shipping sectors have remained stable or edged down.
Uncertainty over crude trade
There is greater uncertainty hanging over duties on crude oil and products, which is why it looks like dry bulk will feel the impact first, Fotios Katsoulas, a shipping analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said.
In terms of tankers, “China will likely turn to Canada and OPEC to replace US crude oil and the US may also turn to OPEC to replace the volume from its neighbors,” Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at shipping industry body BIMCO, told Platts.
One key area of concern is agriculture, where industry interests continue to urge US President Donald Trump to pull back new tariffs entirely, warning they risk provoking a damaging trade conflict with key US agricultural trade partners.
On March 6, Trump retracted new 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods he had earlier imposed, exempting products that fall under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which includes over a third of imports from Canada and about half from Mexico. His stated goal is to address his demands for better border security.
Tariffs on products from have been doubled China to 20% and Beijing has responded by imposing a slew of tariffs on US agricultural products.
Trade flows
In the agricultural sector, Chinese buyers are likely to source lower volumes of products such as soybeans from the US and more from Brazil, according to traders. As for tankers, the US-China and Canada/Mexico-US trades contribute 1% and 2% of global crude tanker demand respectively, according to BIMCO data.
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Source: Platts
