The global dry bulk fleet is projected to continue its expansion through 2026, though at a moderated pace compared to recent years. This trend is influenced by a combination of factors, including shifts in shipbuilding practices, policy changes, and evolving market dynamics, reports Breakwave Advisors.
Projected Fleet Expansion
According to projections, the dry bulk fleet is expected to grow from 5,330 vessels in 2024 to 5,603 vessels by the end of 2025, and further to 5,818 vessels by 2026. This growth trajectory indicates a steady increase in fleet size, albeit at a decelerated rate.
Decline in Newbuild Deliveries
A significant factor contributing to the moderated fleet growth is the anticipated decline in newbuilding deliveries. Deliveries are expected to decrease sharply to 104 vessels in 2025, a 75% drop from the 238 vessels delivered in 2024. However, scheduled deliveries remain robust, with 171 vessels expected in 2025 and 215 in 2026, suggesting that the slowdown in newbuild deliveries may be temporary.
Influencing Factors
Several elements are influencing the current dry bulk fleet growth dynamics:
- Policy Changes: Recent U.S. Trade Representative port fees have discouraged U.S.-linked shipowners from contracting vessels at Chinese shipyards, leading to a shift towards non-Chinese yards. This change, while potentially increasing costs and delivery times, reflects a strategic adjustment in shipbuilding practices.
- Market Demand: The balance between fleet growth and market demand is crucial. If demand does not align with the increasing fleet capacity, there could be a risk of supply overhang, potentially impacting freight rates and market stability.
- Scrapping Activity: Limited scrapping of older vessels contributes to fleet growth. However, if scrapping activity increases, it could offset some of the newbuild additions, influencing overall fleet size.
Conclusion
While the dry bulk fleet is set to expand over the next two years, the rate of growth is influenced by a complex interplay of policy decisions, market demand, and shipbuilding practices. Stakeholders in the dry bulk sector will need to navigate these factors carefully to maintain a balance between fleet capacity and market requirements.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
