The latest dual-fuel market penetration data from VesselsValue highlights a clear divergence between the Bulker and Tanker segments in adopting alternative fuel technologies. While both sectors are responding to tightening emissions regulations and future carbon constraints, the pace, scale, and fuel preferences differ significantly. These trends will play a critical role in shaping the future emissions profile and competitiveness of the global shipping fleet.
Tanker Sector: Slow Current Uptake but Strong Orderbook Momentum
Dual-fuel adoption within the Tanker sector remains limited in the live fleet, with penetration ranging from 0% in Panamax/LR1 vessels to 4.8% in the Aframax/LR2 segment. However, newbuilding orders indicate a decisive strategic shift. Aframax/LR2 tankers lead with 18.4% of vessels on order featuring dual-fuel capability, followed by Suezmaxes at 14.4% and VLCCs at 13.6%.
LNG overwhelmingly dominates as the preferred alternative fuel, accounting for over 90% of dual-fuel VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax/LR2 vessels. This preference reflects LNG’s mature bunkering infrastructure, operational reliability, and immediate emissions reduction benefits. The MR1/MR2 segment stands apart, where methanol captures 74.2% of the dual-fuel market, driven largely by these vessels’ role as methanol carriers and their easier access to fuel at cargo ports.
Overall, tanker owners appear to be cautiously positioning themselves for future compliance with IMO CII regulations and anticipated carbon pricing, while balancing operational flexibility across diverse trading routes.
Bulker Sector: Accelerated Adoption Driven by Charterer Demand
In contrast, the Bulker sector demonstrates significantly higher dual-fuel penetration, particularly among larger vessel classes. Capesize bulkers show 3.1% penetration in the live fleet, rising sharply to 27.5% in the orderbook the highest rate across all vessel segments analysed. Post-Panamax bulkers follow closely with 23.4% orderbook penetration.
Fuel preferences in the Bulker sector are more diverse than in Tankers. While LNG remains dominant for Capesize vessels at 65.6%, methanol accounts for 13.9% and ammonia for a notable 20.5%, reflecting early interest in zero-carbon fuels. Post-Panamax bulkers show the strongest methanol commitment at 66.7%, while Panamax vessels are split between LNG and methanol. Smaller segments such as Supramax and Handysize currently show 100% LNG preference, though overall adoption remains minimal.
This rapid uptake is largely driven by major mining companies such as BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and Anglo American. Through long-term charter agreements, these charterers are actively pushing for dual-fuel capability to meet aggressive decarbonisation targets across their supply chains. The fixed-route nature of iron ore trades between Brazil, Australia, and China further supports investment in alternative-fuel infrastructure, making adoption commercially viable.
VesselsValue’s orderbook data suggests that dual-fuel technology will increasingly reshape the environmental and commercial landscape of both Bulker and Tanker sectors over the coming years. However, the concentration of adoption in larger vessels points to a growing divide, where older and smaller tonnage may face reduced charter attractiveness as emissions regulations tighten.
Shipowners must navigate complex trade-offs between early adoption risks, regulatory compliance, charterer expectations, and fuel availability. With LNG and methanol emerging as leading contenders alongside early ammonia interest in bulkers the alternative fuel transition remains fragmented. Ultimately, vessel type, trading pattern, and charterer pressure will determine which technologies gain long-term dominance in the evolving decarbonisation journey.
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Source – VESON NAUTICAL
