A new report released by the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA) and Lloyd’s Register Maritime Decarbonisation Hub found that e-fuel-powered shipping services are projected to be available for ZEMBA’s next tender. Specifically, the report – which summarises the findings from a request for information (RFI) that the two organizations co-ran earlier in 2024 – found sufficient predicted supply of both e-methanol and e-methanol-capable vessels in the container segment to support ZEMBA’s focus on e-fuel deployment. ZEMBA’s next tender is expected to launch in early 2025, to purchase the environmental attributes associated with e-fuel-powered services starting in 2027, reports LR.
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Nearly 50 ship operators and fuel suppliers worldwide responded to the ZEMBA RFI, which was intended to assess the market readiness for the commercial deployment of e-fuels in shipping. The report focuses on the implications of the RFI’s results for ZEMBA’s next tender and how these findings relate to overarching trends in commercial deployment of e-fuels in the maritime sector. The RFI did not ask about the projected cost or price of e-fuel-powered services.
ZEMBA’s upcoming tender builds upon lessons learned during its inaugural tender, completed in April 2024. Global carrier Hapag-Lloyd won the first tender and is supporting members to collectively avoid at least 82,000 metric tonnes of CO2e in 2025 and 2026.
The majority of RFI respondents predicted that commercial e-fuel deployment in the maritime sector would be feasible starting in 2027 and 2028, with limited deployment potentially as early as late 2026. However, in the next few years, the RFI results identified a mismatch in the supply of certain e-fuels and corresponding e-fuel capable vessels on a fuel-by-fuel basis.
Containerships capable of operating on e-methane are already available now, but the RFI found no e-methane production projects post-final investment decision (FID). Conversely, e-ammonia production projects under construction appear to be sufficient to meet ZEMBA’s estimated demand, but the first e-ammonia-capable containerships are unlikely to be on the water by 2027.
The RFI suggests e-methanol is the most likely pathway for ZEMBA’s next tender because of the alignment between sufficient projected e-methanol fuel production and e-methanol-capable containership vessels on the water in 2027. However, across fuel types, the report highlights that a significant number of e-fuel projects remain at the pre-FID stage, casting doubt on whether those projects would begin production on their projected timelines and, related if e-fuel-capable dual fuel vessels will run on e-fuels.
One finding from ZEMBA’s inaugural tender was that announcements for e-fuel development projects often do not correlate to commercial readiness within predicted timeframes. ZEMBA received no e-fuel-powered bids for its first tender. Commitments from ZEMBA members for e-fuel-powered shipping services through the next tender will aim to encourage ship operators and others across the maritime value chain to enter into longer-term offtake e-fuel contracts of their own.
ZEMBA and the Lloyd’s Register Maritime Decarbonization Hub’s report on the results from the RFI can be found here. ZEMBA intends to announce details about its next e-fuel-focused tender before the end of 2024, to solicit bids in early 2025. Ahead of this tender, ZEMBA is recruiting additional climate-leading companies who are seeking to credibly reduce their Scope 3 emissions, manage the long-term cost of the energy transition, and kickstart a zero-emission market in the maritime sector.
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Source: LR
