This week’s Cancelled Sailings update by Drewry provides a snapshot of blank sailings announced by each Alliance versus the total number of scheduled sailings.
Weekly analysis: 19 December 2024
In the key East-West trade lanes—Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe & Med—89 sailings have been canceled between weeks 52 (23 Dec-29 Dec) and 04 (20 Jan-26 Jan), out of a total of 724 scheduled sailings, representing a 12% cancellation rate.
The majority of these cancellations will occur on the Transpacific Eastbound (58%), followed by the Transatlantic Westbound (27%) and Asia-North Europe & Med (15%). Over the next five weeks, THE Alliance will cancel 20 sailings, followed by OCEAN Alliance and 2M with 19 and 15 canceled sailings, respectively. Meanwhile, non-Alliance services have announced 35 blank sailings during this period.
Over the next five weeks, we anticipate a decline in schedule reliability, with approximately 12% of vessels expected to miss their scheduled sailings, as illustrated in the chart above.
As 2024 ends, uncertainty surrounds the market due to a potential USEC port strike, US import tariff hikes, and shifting alliances. Despite this, carriers have successfully reversed recent freight rate declines.
On 19 December, Drewry’s WCI Composite Index rose 8% WoW to $3,803 per 40ft container, with Transpacific rates jumping 20%, Transatlantic rates increasing 3%, and Asia-Europe/Med rates dropping 1%.
As we approach the year’s close, it’s evident that 2024 has been another year of significant volatility in the shipping market. Geopolitical tensions, the Red Sea crisis, and strikes have all disrupted supply chains while offsetting considerably the huge challenge of overcapacity that carriers would have been facing.
Looking ahead, the market remains uncertain. Donald Trump’s inauguration as president on 20 January, combined with the potential for another labour strike at US East Coast and Gulf ports, could add further uncertainty. Additionally, the anticipated changes in shipping alliances are likely to influence ocean freight rates and operational dynamics in the coming year. Shippers and BCOs are advised to remain vigilant while planning their cargo transportation.
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Source: Drewry
